Date: Wednesday 21 January Track: Catterick Bridge Going: Good to Soft

We head to North Yorkshire today for a tricky seven-race card at Catterick. It’s a sharp, undulating track that often catches horses out, but looking at the HorseRaceBase (HRB) ratings this morning, we have found some incredibly strong trends. In several races, the “hype” horses are rated significantly lower than the proven course specialists.

Here is the race-by-race breakdown using our ratings logic, head-to-head records, and value assessment.

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12:47 – The Veterans’ Chase

The Selection: Ladronne (265.5) We start with the old boys. The ratings are crystal clear here: Ladronne is our top-rated horse by nearly 10 points. He won comfortably at Sedgefield in November and, crucially, he holds a dominant head-to-head record over Fern Hill (beating him by 37 lengths recently). He handles the track and looks the most solid proposition to get us off to a winning start.

• The Lurker: Fern Hill. The market has him down the pecking order, but our numbers have him clear second best. If Ladronne fluffs his lines, this is the one to pick up the pieces at a nice price.

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1:17 – Novices’ Hurdle

The Selection: Alsakib (297.0) This looks like a race where the race conditions favour the class act. Alsakib is a smart flat horse who is actually receiving weight from the previous hurdle winners. Our ratings have him +7.2 points clear of the field. When a superior horse gets weight from the market favourite, you have to take the value.

• The Lurker: Red Oak. He splits the top two in our ratings and looks a solid forecast option to chase the selection home.
• The Swerve: Kosac Doudairies. The favourite is rated only 3rd best in our system. Poor value.

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1:47 – Novices’ Handicap Chase

The Selection: Huit Reflets (267.3) The market has overreacted to Powerofjet’s recent win. Our system prefers Huit Reflets, who is rated nearly 19 points higher than the favourite. He’s a consistent sort who destroyed Blended Stealth in their last two meetings. In a novice chase, I’d rather back the horse with the highest rating and consistent profile than a flashy last-time-out winner.

• The Lurker: Marty Mcfly. Rated 2nd best and sits nicely between the selection and the rest.
• The Swerve: Powerofjet. Rated 3rd but priced as favourite. A classic “lay” on the figures.

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2:20 – Handicap Hurdle

The Selection: Jack Hoola (277.0) In a big field of 16, finding a horse rated +10 points clear at the top is rare. Jack Hoola is thriving right now (1-2-1-2 form line) and simply has too much firepower for this lot. The 4/1 available is surprisingly fair given his statistical dominance.

• The Lurker: Singapore Trip. This is the massive each-way value of the day. He is rated joint-3rd but is trading at double-figure odds (14/1). He won over this course and distance just 24 days ago. Ignore the price; the data says he has a massive shout for the placings.

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2:50 – Handicap Chase

The Selection: Valence D’Aumont (259.8) This is arguably the bet of the day. Valence D’Aumont won over this exact course and distance less than a month ago, beating Mersey Street. Yet, bizarrely, he is a bigger price (7/1) than the horse he just beat. He is our top-rated horse by a mile (+16 points). The market has got this one wrong.

• The Lurker: Mersey Street. Should follow the selection home again for a repeat of the C&D forecast.
• The Swerve: Alltalknoaction. Rated 8th best but priced as second favourite. Avoid.

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3:20 – Handicap Hurdle

The Selection: Rukaana (269.8) I don’t use the word “banker” often in Class 5 handicaps, but the numbers here are staggering. Rukaana is rated +60 points clear of the third-best horse. He is operating in a different league to most of these. It should be a straightforward win if he runs to his mark.

• The Lurker: Newport. The only other horse with a pulse in this race. He is the clear second best and makes for a solid straight forecast with the winner.

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3:50 – Junior Bumper

The Selection: Nightflyer (43.0) Junior bumpers are always a bit of a guess, but when there is no form, we trust the algorithm. Nightflyer comes out significantly top-rated (+10.5), likely due to the strong Adrian Keatley and Brian Hughes combination.

• The Lurker: Broadway Dreamer. Fergal O’Brien knows how to ready one for a bumper. If the favourite is weak in the betting, this is the logical alternative.

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Summary of Best Bets:

• Nap: Rukaana (3:20)
• Next Best: Jack Hoola (2:20)
• Value Play: Valence D’Aumont (2:50)