The Puzzle: Heavy Ground + Tactical Pace + Class vs. Potential
This race presents a classic “stayer’s puzzle.” We have a small field (7 runners), Heavy ground, and a trip of nearly 3 miles. The pace forecast is Weak, meaning this won’t be a frantic gallop; it will likely be a tactical affair where position and the ability to quicken out of the mud are crucial.
Here is the logical breakdown of the race.
1. Statistical Groupings & Trends (Concrete Numbers)
To understand the profile of the likely winner, we must look at the historical data of this specific race over the last 10 years.
Age Group Statistics (Last 10 Renewals):
Ages 6–7: 60% of winners (6 wins). This is the “prime” age group for this race.
Ages 8–9: 30% of winners (3 wins).
Ages 10+: 10% of winners (1 win – War of Attrition in 2010).
Implication: History heavily favors the younger, fresher legs. This is a negative for the 10yo Gerri Colombe and 11yo Home By The Lee.
Trainer Group Statistics (Last 10 Renewals):
W.P. Mullins: 3 Wins (Monkfish, Benie Des Dieux, Shaneshill). Notably, he has no runner here.
M.F. Morris: 2 Wins (Sams Profile, Alpha Des Obeaux). He saddles the outsider Franciscan Rock.
Gordon Elliott: 1 Win (Teahupoo). He saddles the favorite Staffordshire Knot and Gerri Colombe.
2. The Protagonists: Logic & Analysis
I have isolated the four main contenders and applied the “Heavy Ground/Weights” logic to them.
A. The Improver: Staffordshire Knot (IRE)
Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: Danny Gilligan
Odds: 2/1 (Approx)
The Logic: This horse is on a steep upward trajectory. He won a maiden hurdle and then demolished a field by 10 lengths in a handicap at Clonmel on Heavy ground.
The Weight Advantage: Crucially, he carries 11-3, receiving 9lbs from the top-rated Home By The Lee. In heavy mud, 9lbs is a significant geometric advantage.
Verdict: He fits the “Younger Horse” trend (8yo is acceptable) and arrives in peak form.
B. The Benchmark: Home By The Lee (IRE)
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien | Jockey: J.J. Slevin
Odds: 5/1
The Logic: He is the class act (OR 159). He finished 4th in a Grade 1 last time out and has won over this trip repeatedly.
The Problem: He is 11 years old. Only one horse aged 10+ has won this in the last decade. He also concedes a lot of weight to younger, hungrier rivals.
Verdict: The safe each-way play, but vulnerable to a younger improver.
C. The Wildcard: Gerri Colombe (FR)
Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: Jack Kennedy
Odds: 10/3
The Logic: A Grade 1 staying chaser reverting to hurdles after pulling up in the Savills Chase.
The Risk: This feels like a “confidence booster” or a retrieval mission. Why hurdles now? Often, when top chasers revert to hurdles mid-season after a bad run, they run credibly but lack the sharpness to win against specialists.
Verdict: Too many questions to trust at the price.
D. The Specialist: Rockys Diamond (IRE)
Trainer: Declan Queally | Jockey: Mr D.L. Queally
Odds: 11/4
The Logic: He won this race last year as a 5yo. He is a Course and Distance (CD) winner. 
Recent Form: He disappointed last time in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle, but the analysis suggests he “went off too hard.” In a race with a Weak Pace forecast, he might get an easy lead here.
Verdict: A major danger if allowed to dictate the pace.
3. Solving the Puzzle
The race sets up as a tactical battle between the proven veteran (Home By The Lee) giving weight away, and the improver (Staffordshire Knot) receiving it.
The Pace Angle: Rockys Diamond will likely try to lead. If Home By The Lee (who wears blinkers and can be lazy) gets outpaced when the sprint begins, he may struggle to bridge the gap giving away weight.
The Weight: The 9lb difference between Home By The Lee (11-12) and Staffordshire Knot (11-3) is the decisive factor on Heavy ground.
Professional Verdict
The Selection: STAFFORDSHIRE KNOT (IRE)
He represents the “momentum” choice. He handles the ground perfectly (proven at Clonmel), receives significant weight from the older horses, and his trainer (Elliott) has won this with an improver (Teahupoo) before.
The Danger: ROCKYS DIAMOND (IRE)
Do not underestimate the defending champion. If he gets an uncontested lead in a weak-pace race, he could slip the field on the home bend.
The Fade: GERRI COLOMBE (FR)
I am opposing him. The switch to hurdles suggests the stable is worried about his current form/confidence over fences.