The Puzzle: 3.30 Gowran Park – Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase
This race is widely considered the mid-season highlight of the Irish National Hunt calendar. The “puzzle” here is solving the equation of Heavy Ground + 3 miles 1 furlong + 18 runners. Gowran Park in January on heavy ground is not a speed test; it is a war of attrition. You need a horse with lungs of leather, a high cruising speed in the mud, and the ability to jump rhythmically in a crowded field.
Based on the data provided, here is the logical unraveling of the race.
1. The Statistical Framework (Concrete Numbers)
Before looking at individual horses, we must look at the profile of a Thyestes winner based on the last 10 years of data provided:
Trainer Dominance: W.P. Mullins and Gordon Elliott are the titans here. Mullins has won 4 of the last 10 renewals (40%), while Elliott has won 2 (20%).
Age Profile: The sweet spot is generally ages 7 to 9. However, Carefully Selected (11yo in 2023) and On His Own (10yo in 2014) prove that older horses with stamina can win.
Weight Carrying: Carrying over 11st in this ground is difficult, yet high-class horses like Djakadam (11-10) and Nick Rockett (11-11) have done it.
The “Paddy Power” Link: The Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown (run 26 days ago) is the key form line. Search For Glory (2nd), Now Is The Hour (4th), Captain Cody (7th), Shanbally Kid (11th), and Will Do (18th) all ran in that race.
2. The Main Protagonists
I have isolated the four horses that fit the statistical and form criteria best.
A. The Stamina Monster: Captain Cody (IRE)
Trainer: W.P. Mullins | Jockey: P. Townend
Odds: 6/1
The Logic: This horse won the Scottish Grand National (4 miles) last season. That proves his stamina is beyond doubt. His run 26 days ago in the Paddy Power (7th) was a classic “sighter”—he wasn’t knocked about and finished 9 lengths off the winner.
Key Stat: He has a 34% Win Rate with Paul Townend on board.
Verdict: He will love the heavy ground and the distance. He is the choice of the champion jockey.
B. The Form Choice: Search For Glory (IRE)
Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: J.W. Kennedy
Odds: 8/1
The Logic: He finished 2nd in the Paddy Power Chase, beating Captain Cody by nearly 5 lengths. He is consistent and hard as nails.
Key Stat: 17% Win Rate over fences. He traded at 50% or less of his starting SP in running last time out, indicating he travels strongly into the race.
Concern: He had a hard race less than a month ago. Can he back that up on heavy ground carrying 11-4?
C. The Mudlark: Answer To Kayf
Trainer: Terence O’Brien | Jockey: J.P. Shinnick (3)
Odds: 7/1
The Logic: He won the Troytown Handicap Chase at Navan on Heavy ground in November. He idles in front, meaning he often saves energy.
Key Stat: He has the Highest Class Speed Figure (90.24) in the field based on the “Avg All” metric in the data. He relishes a slog.
Verdict: A major player, though he has a career-high mark to defy.
D. The Unexposed Profile: High Class Hero
Trainer: W.P. Mullins | Jockey: D.E. Mullins
Odds: 7/1
The Logic: He is lightly raced over fences (only 6 chase starts). He has “Grade 1 potential” written on him but is in a handicap. He finished 2nd on his return after a 7-month break.
Risk: Inexperience in a chaotic 18-runner handicap field can be fatal to a horse’s chances at Gowran.
3. The “Dark Horse” & Value Angle
While the top of the market is strong, the data highlights two interesting value plays.
Better Times Ahead (11/2 – 8/1):
He won the Porterstown Handicap Chase (3m 6f) at Fairyhouse recently.
He carries a lovely low weight of 10-5.
Logic: In heavy ground, carrying 1 stone less than the favourites is a massive geometric advantage. He stays forever.
Jordans (FR) (12/1):
Speed Figure: He posted a massive 93.08 speed figure recently.
Logic: He was 5th in a handicap hurdle recently as a prep run. He is a Grade 3 winner over fences. If he handles the step up in trip, he is dangerously well-handicapped.
4. Professional Verdict
The puzzle solves as follows: The race will be run at a searching pace. The stamina of the light-weights will be tested, but the class of the heavy-weights usually prevails at Gowran.
The Selection: CAPTAIN CODY (IRE)
He ticks every box: proven extreme stamina (Scottish National), handles heavy ground, trained by the race’s dominant trainer (Mullins), ridden by the #1 jockey (Townend), and had a perfect preparation run 26 days ago without having a “gut-buster.”
The Danger: SEARCH FOR GLORY (IRE)
He is the most solid jumper in the field. If he recovers from his Leopardstown exertions, he will be in the frame.
The Each-Way Value: BETTER TIMES AHEAD (IRE)
With only 10st 5lb on his back in heavy ground, and coming off a win over 3m 6f, he will be passing tiring horses at the finish line.
Predicted Finishing Order:
Captain Cody
Search For Glory
Better Times Ahead
Answer To Kayf