They say “pace makes the race,” and looking at today’s cards at Catterick, Kempton, and Lingfield, we have a few scenarios where the early speed map dictates the likely winner more clearly than the handicap ratings do.
We’ve had a look at the “Run Style” data—specifically who likes to lead, who likes to be held up, and who has a nasty habit of missing the break—and the morning non-runners have thrown up a massive opportunity in North Yorkshire.
Here is today’s view from the front line.
The Nap: A Solo Soloist at Catterick (14:50)
Selection: Mersey Street
Sometimes, you have to react quickly to the morning scratchings. At 9am, the 14:50 Handicap Chase looked like a competitive burn-up. But with both Alltalknoaction and Ballylinch declared non-runners, the complexion of this race has flipped entirely.
Those two were the primary pace rivals to Mersey Street. With them out of the picture, Mersey Street (who boasts a strong “Front Runner” score of 6) is now the only natural leader left in the field.
Catterick is a sharp, turning track where it is notoriously difficult to peg back a rhythm leader. Mersey Street should now be able to dictate his own fractions without being pestered. If he gets into a groove over those fences, the “hold up” horses like Wolfburg are going to find themselves chasing a shadow. The race has effectively been handed to him on a plate tactically; he just has to jump round.
The Next Best: The Kempton Hare (18:00)
Selection: Zoran
Over at Kempton this evening, we have a fascinating tactical battle in the 18:00 Handicap.
Zoran is what we call a “pace machine.” With a Front Runner score of 8, he doesn’t just like to lead; he insists on it. He is the clear speed angle in the race.
Conversely, the likely favourite, Appier, comes with a health warning. He has a “Poor Start” flag (PS: 2) in his data, meaning he has a habit of dwelling in the stalls. At Kempton, if you miss the beat against a lone leader like Zoran, it’s game over.
I’m expecting Zoran to bounce out, grab the rail, and stack them up. If Appier is sluggish away, he’ll be stuck in traffic while the bird has already flown. Zoran is a cracking bet to wire the field.
The “Chaos” Pick: The Deep Closer (14:20 Catterick)
Selection: As Fast As Wind (Each Way)
If you want a bit of fun at a bigger price, look at the 14:20 Hurdle.
We have a horse in here called Inferno Sacree who has a “Front Runner” score of 10. That is off the charts. He only knows one way to run, and that is fast. He is likely to stretch this field to breaking point.
When the pace is suicidal, you want a horse that stays cool at the back. As Fast As Wind has an extreme “Held Up” profile (Score: 9). He is totally dependent on a pace collapse, and today he gets the perfect setup. While the others are gasping for air coming to the last, he could be the one sweeping past at a lovely double-digit price.
A Quick Word of Warning ⚠️
Be very careful with Its Showtime in the 14:38 at Lingfield. The data shows a “Poor Start” score of 3. On a sharp track like Lingfield, in a race that promises to be fast (thanks to The Defiant), missing the break is a death sentence. He might look tempting on form, but the start is a massive risk.
Summary of Plays:
Nap: Mersey Street (14:50 Catterick) 9/4
NB: Zoran (18:00 Kempton) 9/4
Longshot: As Fast As Wind (14:20 Catterick) 14/1