The Puzzle:
We have a 6/4 Favourite (Pleasington) carrying 12st dead on Soft ground. He is giving weight to course specialists. The professional approach here is almost automatically to take him on. The risk/reward ratio at 6/4 is incredibly poor for the task he faces.
The value lies in finding the horse that beats him.
1. The “Anti-Favourite” Logic
Pleasington (6/4): He has the best speed figures, yes. But he has to concede lumps of weight (up to 20lbs) to rivals in tiring conditions. His jumping has to be perfect. If he hits one fence hard, that 12st becomes an anchor. At 6/4, you are paying a premium for Sean Bowen and his recent Newbury run, leaving zero margin for error.
2. The Value Alternatives (The Real Bet)
A. The Plot: Geryville (FR)
Odds: 8/1 – 10/1
The Logic: This is the bet.
History: Won this race in 2025.
Weights: He is 11lbs better off with Genois for a defeat last time.
Jockey: Brian Hughes takes over.
Price: While everyone piles into the 6/4 shot carrying the grandstand, you can back the past winner carrying 11-2 at five times the price. This is where the mathematical edge is.
B. The “Fresh” Horse: Walk On Quest (IRE)
Odds: 13/2
The Logic: He demolished Ned Tanner (who runs here) by 21 lengths earlier in the season. He is a 7-year-old improving chaser against exposed veterans. Receiving 5lbs from the favourite, he is the most likely to have the “legs” if it turns into a sprint up the Wetherby straight.
C. The Trap: Genois (FR)
Odds: 7/1
The Logic: He won last time, but he has gone up in the weights and faces a huge swing against Geryville. He is consistent but feels like a horse that had his day in the sun last month.
Verdict

The Selection: GERYVILLE (FR) (Each Way)
Odds: 8/1 – 10/1
Reasoning: The race conditions have swung heavily in his favour (weight turnaround + jockey upgrade + course history). He is the smart play to pick up the pieces if the favourite struggles under the weight.
The Saver: WALK ON QUEST (IRE)
Odds: 13/2
Reasoning: The only unexposed horse in the field. If the old guard (Geryville/Genois) aren’t quick enough, he is the younger improver who could simply outrun them.
Predicted Finish:
Geryville
Walk On Quest
Pleasington (Likely to place on class, but fade for the win under 12st)