Good morning. It is a massive day in the racing calendar with the Goffs Thyestes Chase taking centre stage at Gowran Park. We also have jump meetings at Wetherby and Huntingdon, alongside the all-weather action at Southwell and Newcastle.
Running my eye over the data for Thursday, 22nd January 2026, there are some startling statistical anomalies—particularly regarding the two biggest yards in Ireland.
Here is my trainer report.
🔥 Who’s Hot (The Form Yards)
1. W.P. Mullins (Gowran Park)
The Stats: Willie Mullins is operating at a frightening 33% strike rate (18 winners from his last 54 runners) over the last 14 days. His runners are hitting the frame (win or place) 30% of the time.
The Verdict: The Closutton machine is purring. He dominates the entries at Gowran Park today. While he throws plenty of darts in the big handicaps, a 33% strike rate for a yard of this size is exceptional.
Implication: In the Thyestes Chase (3.30) and the supporting card, any 50/50 decisions should go in his favour.
2. Olly Murphy (Wetherby & Huntingdon)
The Stats: Murphy has notched 8 winners from his last 30 runners (27% strike rate) with a solid 33% place rate.
The Verdict: The yard is firing efficiently across the UK tracks. His horses are running to form consistently.
Runners to Note: He has runners at both Wetherby and Huntingdon; these deserve a second look in the market, particularly if they drift, as the stable confidence is high.
3. Adrian Paul Keatley (Newcastle)
The Stats: A smaller sample size, but deadly efficiency: 3 wins from his last 6 runners (50%).
The Verdict: This is a classic “sniper” yard at the moment. When they send one to the track, it is ready to win. Watch his runner (Aisling Oscar) in the 7.00 at Newcastle closely.
❄️ Who’s Cold (The Drifters)
1. Gordon Elliott (Gowran Park)
The Stats: These statistics are the talking point of the day. The Cullentra House yard has had just 3 winners from their last 65 runners, operating at a strike rate of roughly 5%.
The Verdict: Usually a powerhouse, Elliott is enduring a significant lull. For a yard of this magnitude to be striking at 5% heading into a major festival is a flashing warning light.
Advice: Proceed with extreme caution. The market often prices his horses on reputation, but the current stable form suggests they are not firing.
2. Tony Carroll (Southwell)
The Stats: Currently 0 winners from his last 28 runners.
The Verdict: A reliable yard for all-weather handicaps typically, but they are currently ice cold.
Advice: I would want to see a significant market move or a return to form before investing heavily in his runners at Southwell today.
3. Gavin Cromwell (Gowran Park)
The Stats: 1 winner from his last 41 runners (2% strike rate).
The Verdict: Another top Irish yard that is struggling to find the winner’s enclosure in the last fortnight. Like Elliott, his runners may be underperforming compared to their market expectations.
💡 Expert View: The “Angle” of the Day
The story of the day is the Mullins vs. Elliott divergence at Gowran Park.
The Logic: You have the two titans of Irish racing arriving in opposite form. Mullins is at 33% wins; Elliott is at 5% wins.
The Play: In the handicaps at Gowran (especially the Thyestes at 3.30), if you are torn between a Mullins runner and an Elliott runner, the percentage call is to side with Mullins purely on stable well-being.