Race: Virgin Bet Great Yorkshire Chase (Premier Handicap) Distance: 3m (Soft) Pace Forecast: Very Strong

This Premier Handicap is one of the toughest betting races of the season. The “Very Strong” pace forecast is crucial; it suggests a relentless gallop that will test stamina to the limit on soft ground. This dynamic typically favors horses who can travel within themselves and stay on strongly, rather than those who need to lead or race keenly.

Key Contenders & Statistical Breakdown

1. Deep Cave (Current Odds: ~7/2)

• The Logic: A progressive chaser who is 2-2 over fences this season, including a gritty win at Ascot. He has proven stamina and handles soft ground well.
• The Data: Top Rated on HRB (376.2) and has the highest “Last Race” rating (131.6). Christian Williams is a master at targeting these big handicaps.
• Tactical Fit: Usually held up, the strong pace will suit him perfectly, allowing him to pick off tiring rivals.
• Verdict: The rightful favourite and the one to beat.

2. Grand Geste (Current Odds: ~100/30)

• The Logic: Bolted up in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock last time. He jumps for fun and relishes soft ground.
• The Data: Up 10lb for that win, which is significant. His speed figures are solid (78.34), but he often races prominently.
• Tactical Fit: In a “Very Strong” pace scenario, being too close to the front could leave him vulnerable late on. Can he sustain a duel and fend off closers?
• Verdict: A huge danger, but the pace map is a slight concern.

3. Docpickedme (Current Odds: ~15/2)

• The Logic: Won this race last year (off 2lb lower) and returned to form with a C&D win last month. He loves Doncaster.
• The Data: His course record is excellent (3-1-5).
• Verdict: A specialist at this track who comes alive in this specific race. At the prices, he is excellent each-way value.

4. King’s Threshold (Current Odds: ~12/1)

• The Logic: Won well at Newbury but steps up significantly in class.
• Verdict: Has to prove he can mix it in this Premier company.

5. Walking On Air (Current Odds: ~15/2)

• The Logic: Unlucky faller at the last in this race a year ago when challenging Docpickedme. He hasn’t shown much since, but this has clearly been the target.
• The Data: First-time cheekpieces applied.
• Verdict: The “Plot Horse.” If the headgear revives him, he is dangerously handicapped based on last year’s near-miss.

The “Super Logic” Assessment

The race likely sets up for a closer. Grand Geste will ensure a gallop, but carrying 10lb more in a hotter race on soft ground is a big ask. Deep Cave has the perfect profile: progressive, stays all day, and will love the setup.

However, the “Hidden Value” lies with Walking On Air. He was ready to win this last year off a mark of 125; he races today off 127. His form figures (P/P63F0P-8) look terrible, but that is classic “target training.” The return to this specific test, combined with headgear, screams a revival.

Final Prediction

1. Winner: Deep Cave (Most solid profile, progressive, perfect setup).
2. Next Best: Walking On Air (The “Plot” angle, massive value if back to best).
3. Each-Way Saver: Docpickedme (Course specialist, defending champ).

Recommended Action: Back Deep Cave to win. For a speculative play, Walking On Air each-way (or Place only) is very tempting given the “unfinished business” narrative.