Race: Midnite Aint Your Grandads Bookie Handicap (Class 6) Distance: 1m 4f (Polytrack) Pace Forecast: Weak

This is a tactical Class 6 handicap over the sharp 1m4f at Lingfield. The “Weak” pace forecast is the critical data point here; at Lingfield, races with no pace often turn into a sprint from the home turn. This heavily favors horses with course experience, tactical speed, and the ability to position well, rather than out-and-out stayers who need a gallop.

Key Contenders & Statistical Breakdown

1. Jack Langley (Current Odds: ~3/1)

• The Logic: This 4yo is a Lingfield specialist with 3 wins at the track. His last run (2nd of 11 over C&D) is the key form line. He was boxed in and unlucky not to win, finishing with plenty of running left.
• Data: He tops the “Last Run” ratings in several metrics. Simon Dow has a respectable record at this track, and jockey Paddy Bradley knows the horse intimately (2 wins, 2 places together).
• Verdict: He is the most logical winner. The slow pace suits his turn of foot, and he draws well enough to sit handy.

2. Sonnerie Power (FR) (Current Odds: ~15/8)

• The Logic: An impressive winner LTO at Kempton on his debut for the Killahena/McPherson yard after a 10-month break. He beat Voix De Bocelli and Troy Story that day, giving him the clear collateral form edge.
• Data: He has the 2nd highest HRB Total Rating (244.5). The 5lb rise is manageable, but the “Bounce Factor” is a risk—horses often regress in their second run after a very long layoff.
• Verdict: The main danger, but his price is short considering the potential for “second run flat” syndrome.

3. Hebridean Nomad (Current Odds: ~13/2)

• The Logic: Represents the class angle. He is trained by Andrew Balding (22% strike rate at Lingfield since 2022) and ridden by Jason Watson. He has been running in Class 4/5 company and drops to Class 6 here.
• Data: Top Rated on HRB (249.1). However, he is 0/10 in his career. He often travels well and finds little.
• Verdict: A dangerous lurker given the drop in class, but hard to trust for the win until he gets his head in front.

4. Troy Story (Current Odds: ~9/1)

• The Logic: Finished behind Sonnerie Power recently, but there is a significant gear change today: First-time Blinkers.
• Data: Eve Johnson Houghton is a shrewd trainer. If the blinkers sharpen him up, he could reverse the form, especially if the pace is sluggish and he races prominently.
• Verdict: A lively outsider if the headgear works.

Vulnerable Favourites / Negative Angles

• The Sweet Escape: Step up to 1m4f is a massive question mark. Sired by Zoustar (a sprinter/miler influence), his pedigree screams stamina doubt. First-time tongue tie suggests breathing issues.
• The Bay Warrior: A past C&D winner, but his recent form (9th, 5th, 3rd) suggests decline. Mark Usher has a good profit with single runners, but this horse looks up against it on current speed figures.

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The “Super Logic” Assessment

The race likely boils down to a duel between the “Form Horse” (Sonnerie Power) and the “Course Specialist” (Jack Langley).

While Sonnerie Power was impressive at Kempton, Kempton is a fairer, galloping track. Lingfield is sharp, downhill, and tricky. Jack Langley thrives here. The tactical nature of a slow-paced race plays perfectly into Jack Langley’s hands, as he can sit in the pocket and use his proven track acceleration.

Voix De Bocelli is interesting with the 7lb claim of Donagh Murphy bringing his weight down to 9-1, effectively putting him well in at the weights compared to his Head-to-Head rivals, making him a solid place option.

Final Prediction

1. Winner: Jack Langley (Solid tactical fit, unlucky LTO, Course Specialist).
2. Next Best: Sonnerie Power (Clear form pick, but short price/bounce risk).
3. Value/Dark Horse: Voix De Bocelli (Weight advantage with 7lb claim makes him dangerous each-way).

Recommended Action: Back Jack Langley to win. The 3/1 represents value against a favourite who may bounce.