This is a low-grade handicap, but the numbers make it a straightforward solve. It’s a two-horse race, but one has a significant statistical edge.

​The Selection: Poke The Bear (6/4)

This 4-year-old is the clear form pick.

• ​Momentum: Won decisively here 5 days ago over 7f.
• Weights: Carries a penalty but is effectively only 1lb wrong.
• ​Course Form: 2 wins from 3 runs at Lingfield.
• ​Key Stat: The Burton/Heard trainer-jockey combo has a 33% strike rate with recent runners.
• Pace: Has the tactical speed to handle the switch back to 1m from Stall 7.

​The Danger: Celtic John (3/1)

The only real threat. He posted a Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 64 winning a Classified Stakes last time. The form has worked out well, but he is more exposed than the favourite.

​The Swerve: Dion Baker (13/2)

Do not back this horse. He is 0-29 on All-Weather surfaces. Drawn wide in Stall 10 creates too much work for him. Statistical lay.

​The Place Option: Volendam (5/2)

0 wins in 12 runs, but hits the frame 42% of the time. Rossa Ryan takes the ride (24% track strike rate). She should be in the shake up but needs to prove she has what it takes to win.