Date: Thursday, 29th January 2026
Race: 7.00 Chelmsford City – 7f Handicap (Class 6)
Class 6 handicaps are often dismissed as a lottery, but tonight’s 7.00 at Chelmsford offers a textbook tactical mismatch that the market hasn’t fully priced in. If you look past the favourite’s jockey booking and focus on the mechanics of the race—specifically pace and draw—the winner becomes clear.
Here is the no-nonsense verdict.
The Tactical Landscape: “Very Weak” Pace
The pace forecast for this race is Very Weak. In a slowly run 7-furlong contest at Chelmsford, track position is everything. You cannot afford to be trapped wide or forced to drop out the back; you will simply be outsprinted in the straight.
This dynamic kills the chances of the wide runners and hands a massive advantage to the rail.
The False Favourite: Bullington Bry (2/1)
The market has installed Bullington Bry as the 2/1 favourite, largely due to Hollie Doyle taking the ride. Don’t be seduced by the jockey booking.
He is drawn in Stall 10 (the car park). With a weak pace forecast, Doyle has two bad options: use precious petrol to get across and lead, or drop in and risk getting stuck behind a wall of horses in a sprint finish. Taking 2/1 on a horse needing that much luck in running is bad business. He is a lay.
The Selection: Edergoles Gift (7/2)
The solution to this puzzle sits in Stall 1.
Edergoles Gift has the perfect setup. From the inside gate, she can break smartly and secure the rail without spending a penny of energy. She dictates her own race.
The Form: She is a Course & Distance winner who signaled she is ready to strike again with a heartbreaking “short head” defeat at Lingfield 26 days ago.
The Stat: Her jockey, Ryan Kavanagh, is riding Chelmsford like a veteran. He holds a massive 30% strike rate at this track. The combination of an in-form apprentice, the rail draw, and a tactical pace advantage makes her the standout bet.
The Dangers
My Boy Harry (5/1) is the obvious threat on form. He won over this C&D two weeks ago and backed it up with a solid 2nd at Lingfield just five days ago. The Jim & Suzi Best yard is flying (29% strike rate), but Stall 7 makes his life harder than the selection’s. He’s the forecast link.
If you want a price, look at Thomas Equinas (10/1). He is a four-time winner over this course and distance. He’s dropped to a dangerous mark of 56 and knows every grain of polytrack at this venue. If the race falls apart, he’s the one to pick up the pieces.
The Verdict
Ignore the favourite out wide. The value lies on the rail.
Win: Edergoles Gift @ 7/2
The Forecast: Edergoles Gift to beat My Boy Harry
The Longshot: Thomas Equinas (Each Way)