Date: Thursday, 29th January 2026
Track: Chelmsford City (AW)
Race: 5:00 Handicap (Class 6) – 5f
Right, cut the waffle. We’ve crunched the data, analysed the draw, and stripped back the hype. We are left with a field of eight runners—the “Dead Eight”—which is the magic number for Each-Way punters.
But be warned: watch the screen. If one more horse withdraws, the place terms drop from three places to two. If it stays at eight, we have a license to print money. (Fingers crossed 🤞)
Here is the cold, hard logic for the 5:00 at Chelmsford.
The Banker: #2 Master Dandy (IRE)
The Verdict: NAP (Best Bet of the Day)
This isn’t a hunch; it’s a statistical certainty.
The Path is Clear: His main rival, He’s An Angel (who beat him by a flared nostril three days ago), is a Non-Runner. That leaves Master Dandy as the undisputed class act in the field.
The Setup: He is a pure speed horse dropping back to 5 furlongs. At Chelmsford, early pace is king. From Stall 2, Hector Crouch (who has a 38% strike rate on favourites) can hug the rail and dictate the race.
The Logic: He carries top weight, but he’s essentially “well-in” on his form from Tuesday. He wins this providing he gets a clear run.
The Value Play: #7 Its Showtime (IRE)
The Verdict: Each-Way Thief
The market has her at around 17/2, which is an insult to the data.
The Anomaly: Her jockey, apprentice Ryan Kavanagh, has a 30% Win Rate at Chelmsford. That is a massive statistical outlier. He rides this track better than seasoned pros.
The Weight: Taking into account claims, she is receiving 11lbs from Master Dandy. Over a sprint distance, that weight swing is lethal.
The Play: She’s inconsistent at the start, but with only 8 runners, she won’t get traffic. Back her Each-Way to steal a place or even the win if the favourite fluffs his lines.
The Trap: #5 Smasher (IRE)
The Verdict: Swerve (for the Win)
Don’t let the odds of 9/4 fool you.
The Issue: He is a 6-furlong horse trying to win a 5-furlong sprint at a sharp track.
The Reality: The data warns that the “drop back in trip may not prove ideal.” He’ll likely get outpaced early and be running on when the race is already over. He’s a forecast filler, not a winner.
The Placepot Banker: #9 Marcus
The Verdict: 3rd Place Anchor
He is 0-29. He doesn’t know how to win. But from Stall 1, he has the shortest route home and places in 42% of his races. Stick him in your Exotics to finish 3rd, but don’t waste a penny backing him to win.
Final Word: The data points to Master Dandy. He has the draw, the speed, and the form. Don’t overcomplicate it.