The thurlesraces.ie Maiden Hurdle at Thurles (29 January 2026) served as a high-stakes preparation for the Cheltenham Festival. Despite the heavy conditions, the race turned into a tactical affair that highlighted both the engine and the volatility of a top-tier prospect.

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The Winner: El Cairos (1st)

Gordon Elliott’s charge justified his 1/5 favouritism, but not without a significant scare at the final flight.

• The Run: He travelled with immense authority, moving to the lead after 2 out. However, a “bad mistake” at the last nearly unseated Jack Kennedy. His ability to recover and win by 3 lengths “easily” speaks to a superior class level.
• The Data: His Top Speed of 37.51 mph and a massive Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 119.91% confirm this was a sprint finish. Despite the mistake at the last, he gained 9.65 lengths over the field through his jumping efficiency elsewhere.
• The Verdict: Bookmakers eased him to 6/1 for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. This looks like an overreaction; he has the “unreal boot” required for a Cheltenham opener and will likely find his jumping more rhythmic off a faster gallop on better ground.

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The Eyecatcher: Ehteyat (3rd)

Sent off at 40/1, Ehteyat produced the clear “notebook” performance of the race.

• Analysis: A three-time winner on the Flat (up to 1m 6f), he was caught out by the lack of early pace. He was 6th at 2 out but stayed on strongly to grab 3rd.
• Sectionals: He recorded the third-fastest top speed (36.56 mph). Given his staying pedigree, the fact he was able to live with these in a sprint finish suggests he is significantly better than his current hurdles form.
• Future Target: Look for him when stepped up to 2m 4f or in a high-class handicap hurdle on soft/heavy ground.

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Comparative Jump Metrics

Jumping efficiency on heavy ground is often the difference between winning and losing. The table below shows how the top performers handled the Thurles hurdles.

Horse	Jump Index	Lengths Gained	Positive Jump %	Notes
El Cairos	7.5/10	+9.65L	88.89%	Fastest entry speed (28.05 mph).
Roc Dino	8.0/10	+8.57L	88.89%	Most technically proficient jumper.
Shallow Bowles	7.6/10	+7.34L	88.89%	Consistent; one for handicaps.
Tangara Bay	7.4/10	+1.75L	55.56%	Lost ground with a “bad mistake.”

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Final Assessment

This race was less about the winning margin and more about the “gears” shown.

• El Cairos has the speed for a Supreme but must iron out the late-race errors.
• Roc Dino (2nd) settled better than on his debut and will likely pick up a similar maiden hurdle soon; he is a solid yardstick.
• Shallow Bowles (4th) and Ehteyat (3rd) are the two to follow into handicaps—the former for consistency, the latter for raw staying power.