The 1.50 at Leopardstown is a fascinating Grade 1 puzzle, but the market has fallen for a classic trap: prioritizing a flashy last-time-out visual over cold, hard handicapping logic.
Narciso Has is your 10/11 favourite. Visually, his 12-length demolition job over course and distance at Christmas was stunning. He looked like a machine. But at odds-on, you are paying a premium for that impression, and the maths simply doesn’t stack up.
The Case for Mange Tout (11/4)
The value lies firmly with Gordon Elliott’s unbeaten filly, Mange Tout. Here is the “no nonsense” breakdown:
The Form Line: These two met at Fairyhouse in December on heavy ground. Mange Tout won decisively by nearly 3 lengths.
The Weights: On that day, she received just 3lbs from Narciso Has. Today, she receives a massive 7lbs.
The Logic: You are being asked to back the loser of that duel at odds-on, despite him being 4lbs worse off at the weights today. Unless Narciso Has has improved by a stone in six weeks—a dangerous assumption on this ground—the filly is the superior bet.
She is 3-from-3, battle-hardened, and proven in the mud. At 11/4, she is the standout value of the day.
The Unknown Variable: Selma De Vary (17/2)
The fly in the ointment is Willie Mullins’ other runner, Selma De Vary. Paul Townend takes the ride (Mark Walsh is retained for the favourite), which is a significant pointer. She is a French recruit with heavy ground winning form at Auteuil. When Mullins targets this race with a filly, they rarely miss. She is the one to fear, not the favourite.
The Verdict
Ignore the hype around the favourite. The form book says the filly has his measure, and the weights say she should beat him again.
Win: Mange Tout @ 11/4
Saver: Selma De Vary @ 17/2