Race: Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup (Grade 1)
Date: Saturday, 31st January 2026
If you are backing Galopin Des Champs today, you are betting with your heart, not your head. The bookies have priced the favourite at 6/4 based on his reputation and his victories in 2023, 2024, and 2025. But this is 2026, and the data suggests the King is dead.
Here is the cold, hard reality of the 3.30 at Leopardstown.
The Age Trend is Brutal
Galopin Des Champs is now a 10-year-old. In the last 27 years of this race, only two 10-year-olds have managed to win (Carlingford Lough and Beef Or Salmon). Attempting to win a fourth consecutive Irish Gold Cup at this age is a statistical anomaly. The trends clearly favour the younger legs aged 7-9.
The Ratings Don’t Lie
We use HorseRaceBase (HRB) data for a reason: it strips away the narrative.
Galopin Des Champs Last Race (LR) Rating: 141.6
Affordale Fury Last Race (LR) Rating: 168.5
The favourite is regressing. His performance figures are sliding south, while the challenger is hitting career-best form. A gap of nearly 27 points in their last run ratings is not a margin of error; it is a changing of the guard.
The Head-to-Head Evidence
We don’t need to speculate on how they will match up. We saw it 34 days ago over this exact course and distance. Affordale Fury beat Galopin Des Champs by 3.25 lengths.
The market has priced that result as a fluke or attributed it to the Yielding ground. That is a mistake. Affordale Fury (by Affinisea) will relish the Soft-to-Heavy conditions today just as much, if not more, than the aging favourite.
The Verdict
The market is wrong. They have priced a declining veteran as the clear favourite and the horse that beat him last month as an 8/1 outsider. This is a massive mathematical overlay.
Gaelic Warrior (6/1) is the only other credible threat, but in a heavy-ground slog, the proven stamina of the selection is preferred over the Warrior’s speed.
Forget the fairy tale of the four-timer. Back the data.
The Selection:
AFFORDALE FURY (IRE)
Price: 8/1