Date: Saturday, 31st January 2026
Race: Goffs Irish Arkle Novice Chase (Grade 1)
Let’s cut through the noise. The Goffs Irish Arkle has been reduced to a three-runner affair, and in reality, it’s a match race. On one side, you have the data juggernaut in Romeo Coolio; on the other, the seductive trend of Willie Mullins and a mare receiving weight in Kargese.
In races like this, punters often tie themselves in knots trying to find reasons to back the outsider for “value”. The data suggests that is a mistake. Here is the no-nonsense verdict.
The Case for Romeo Coolio (8/15)
If you strip away the trainer names and just look at the engine, this isn’t a contest.
The Ratings Gap: On HorseRaceBase (HRB) figures, Romeo Coolio is rated 327.9 compared to Kargese’s 236.2. In the real world, a 91-point gap isn’t a gap; it’s a chasm. It tells us he is operating at a consistently higher threshold.
The Form Book: He arrives on a hat-trick (111). His last run generated a speed figure of 163.2. He has been to the well, fought in Grade 1 company, and come out on top. He is the finished article over fences.
The Ground: Sired by Kayf Tara, soft-to-heavy ground is his bread and butter. He won’t be stopped by the mud.
The Case Against Kargese (15/8)
The market is keeping her safe for two reasons: the 7lb sex allowance and the “Mullins Factor”.
The Trap: Mullins has won this race five years running. That is a terrifying stat to bet against. However, trends are there to be broken by superior horses.
The Reality Check: Her last win was a Beginners Chase. While she won by 14 lengths, she beat trees. Her Last Run rating was 86.5. Even with the 7lb allowance (worth roughly 3-4 lengths), she has to improve nearly a stone to match Romeo Coolio’s proven level of 158. You are betting on her potential, not her proof.
The Outsider
Downmexicoway (20/1) is a competent 145-rated handicapper. In a Grade 1, he is out of his depth. He is running for the €13,500 third-place prize money. Ignore him for win purposes.
The Verdict
Don’t let the small field or the Mullins domination spook you. Romeo Coolio is the superior athlete with the harder form. Kargese needs a career-best to get near him; Romeo just needs to turn up and jump round.