Date: Sunday 1st Feb 2026
Race: Ladbrokes Novice Chase (Grade 1)
Going: Soft To Heavy
Let’s cut through the noise. We have a five-runner field for this Grade 1, but if you look at the Official Ratings (OR) and the form book, only two horses actually matter. The betting market will tell you this is a procession for the favourite; the data suggests it’s a match, albeit one heavily weighted to the Mullins camp.
The Favourite: Final Demand (158)
The Banker.
There is no point overthinking this. Final Demand is priced at 2/5 for a reason.
The Trend: Willie Mullins has farmed this race, winning 5 of the last 6 renewals (including stars like Galopin Des Champs and Ballyburn).
The Form: He destroyed his main rival here, Jimmy Du Seuil, by over 40 lengths at Limerick just last month on similar Soft-Heavy ground.
The Stats: He boasts an 83% career win rate and has never finished out of the money. With Paul Townend on board (who has won 4 of the last 6 of these), he is the gold standard.
The Value: Western Fold (157)
The Only Danger.
Here is where the market looks wrong. Western Fold is trading around 7/1, yet the handicapper rates him 157—just 1lb inferior to the favourite.
The Gap: The gap between Western Fold and the third-best horse (Kaid Dauthie) is a massive 9lbs.
The Reality: In a weight-for-age Grade 1, a 9lb advantage is decisive. While he may struggle to beat Final Demand on this deep ground (his best form is on slightly better going), he is head and shoulders above the rest of the field.
The Others
Kaid Dauthie (148): Nice winner of a Beginners Chase last time, but this is a Grade 1. He has 10lbs to find on the ratings. That’s too much bridge to build.
Jimmy Du Seuil: Beaten 42L by the favourite last time out. No case to be made.
Rushmount (143): The 50/1 outsider. Outclassed.
The Verdict
The bookmakers have priced Western Fold as if he’s just “another runner,” but the ratings say he’s nearly the equal of the favourite.
The Win: Final Demand. He loves the mud, he fits the Mullins trends perfectly, and he’s in peak form.