Date: Saturday 31st Jan 2026
Race: Virgin Bet A Good Bet Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase
Five runners. Soft ground. The Sandown Railway fences. This isn’t a race for the faint-hearted or for those who blindly follow the highest rating.
We have a classic tactical affair here, and the data points to one clear outcome.
The Selection: Norn Iron (9/4)
Forget the fact he isn’t top-rated on the raw numbers. This race is decided by two factors: Weight and Connections.
1. The Scales Don’t Lie
Norn Iron is carrying 11st 1lb. The favourite, El Granjero, is lugging 11st 10lb. on soft ground up that punishing Sandown hill, receiving a 9lb start is an enormous advantage. Norn Iron is a previous winner (two starts back) and stays further than this, meaning he’ll be finishing strongest when the weight starts to tell on the leader.
2. The Deadly Duo
Harry Derham and Harry Cobden. The Stat Attack data is screaming at us here. This combination has a 40% Win Strike Rate over the last two years. That is statistically absurd. When Derham books Cobden, they mean business.
The Danger: El Granjero (11/4)
On paper, he is the “best” horse. His HRB Rating of 177.0 is significantly higher than the field. He has a 100% Place Strike Rate on right-handed tracks (5 from 5).
But look closer at the form figures: 5-2-2-2-4-4-2.
He has a severe case of “Seconditis.” He travels well, looks the winner, and finds a way to get beaten. He is the classic “bookie’s friend”—consistent enough to keep his price short, but rarely ruthless enough to win. Conceding 9lbs to a Cobden ride? He is a massive Lay for the win.
The Wildcard: Rip Wheeler (5/1)
The Moore yard knows Sandown inside out (14% Track Win Rate). Rip Wheeler was on a double before pulling up last time out. If you can forgive that run, he’s the value play, but in a small field where jumping errors are magnified, he’s too risky compared to the solidity of the favourite.
The Verdict
Don’t overcomplicate it. We have a solid jumper receiving nearly a stone in weight from a fragile favourite, ridden by the most lethal jockey/trainer combo in the race.
Win: Norn Iron
Forecast: Norn Iron to beat El Granjero.