Sunday 1st Feb 2026 | Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)
W.P. Mullins views this race as his personal property. He has won 9 of the last 11 renewals, including the last four on the bounce with the likes of Ballyburn and Sir Gerhard.
However, the HorseRaceBase data has flagged a massive discrepancy in the market for tomorrow. We have a heavy odds-on favourite profile in a 16/1 shot, and a “project horse” leading the market.
Here is the no-nonsense verdict.
The Win: King Rasko Grey (FR) @ 5/2
In a Grade 1 Novice, jockey bookings tell you everything.
The Choice: Paul Townend had the pick of four Mullins runners. He chose this 6-year-old.
The Trend: 6-year-olds have a superior record in this race compared to the younger generation.
The Form: The Mullins/Townend axis is operating at a 41% Win Strike Rate in the last 14 days.
The Verdict: His data rating is low only because he is unexposed. He is the chosen one from the dominant yard. Don’t overcomplicate it.
The Value: Blake @ 16/1 (Each-Way)
This is the data anomaly of the day.
The Numbers: The algorithm rates Blake at 235.5 (Total HRB). That is significantly higher than the favourite (Talk The Talk – 228.1) and the selection (King Rasko Grey – 177.7).
The Logic: He finished 2nd in a Grade 2 last time out, beaten only a head. He has the best “achieved” form in the book, yet the bookies have priced him as a rank outsider.
The Play: At 16/1, he is the standout each-way bet of the weekend. The computer says he should be a single-figure price.
The Swerve: Talk The Talk (FR) @ 2/1
The market leader is a dangerous betting proposition.
He fell (F) over this course and distance in a Grade 1 just last month.
Leopardstown on Heavy ground is unforgiving. If his confidence is brittle after that fall, he will be found out. At 2/1, the risk-to-reward ratio is poor.
The Dark Horse: The Reverend @ 8/1
Harry Cobden riding for Willie Mullins in Ireland is a rare sight. This horse is a relentless galloper (ex-high class flat stayer). If the race turns into a slog, he will be the one finishing fastest, though he may lack the tactical speed of the selection.
Summary
Banker: King Rasko Grey (5/2) to continue the Mullins monopoly.
Blowout: Blake (16/1) each-way. The data says he is massively overpriced.