Date: Saturday 31st Jan 2026
Race: bet365 Scottish County Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
If you stare at the Official Ratings for today’s 1.43 at Musselburgh, you’ll see a compressed handicap where the handicapper thinks everyone has a fighting chance. If you look at the HorseRaceBase (HRB) data, however, the race is practically solved for us.
This isn’t a race for sentiment; it’s a race for numbers. And the numbers point to one horse.
The Selection: Williethebuilder (IRE)
HRB Rating: 226.2 (Clear Top)
Forget the 9/2. This horse is a statistical anomaly in this field.
The Ratings Gap: On the HRB Total ratings, he sits on 226.2. The next best horse (Kateira) is on 210.4. In a tight handicap, a 15.8-point gap is a chasm. It suggests he is significantly ahead of his mark.
The “Hidden” Weight: On the card, he carries 11-7. But with Toby McCain-Mitchell’s 5lb claim, he is effectively racing off 11-2.
The Profile: He is a 7-year-old improver who won his last two starts. He arrives off a 21-day break—statistically the perfect window for this yard.
When you have a “last time out” winner who is top-rated by a mile and getting weight off his back via a claimer, you back him.
The Danger: Welsh Charger (IRE)
HRB Rating: 201.2
Do not let his recent form figures (1715046) put you off. This horse won this exact race last year.
2025 Win: Carried 11st 5lbs.
Today: Carries 10st 10lbs.
He is officially rated 1lb higher than last year, yet he is carrying 9lbs less physical weight on his back. That is a massive swing in his favour. His trainer, Alastair Ralph, has a 67% strike rate (4 wins from 6) with his runners at this track under these conditions. He has been plotted for this defence.
The Trap: Kateira
HRB Rating: 210.4
She is the class act (OR 145) and Dan Skelton’s yard is flying (30% win rate in the last fortnight). However, giving nearly a stone in weight to a progressive horse like Williethebuilder is a monumental task for a 9-year-old mare. She may run well, but she is poor value for the win.
The Punt: Star Of Guiting (IRE)
HRB Rating: 210.1
If you want an each-way swing, look at the bottom of the weights. He is a 5-year-old running off 10-2, and he bolted up over course and distance 30 days ago. The data ranks him the 3rd best horse in the race, yet he’s receiving lumps of weight from the field.
The Bottom Line
Win: Williethebuilder
Exacta/Forecast: Williethebuilder to beat Welsh Charger.
The gap in the ratings is too big to ignore. Williethebuilder is the standout bet of the day.