Date: Saturday, 31st January 2026
Race: Virgin Bet Daily Extra Places Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 3)
Verdict: Bollin Thou to grind it out.
Sandown on heavy ground is the ultimate truth-teller. It’s not about speed today; it’s about who can gallop through the bog and still find a leg up that punishing final hill. We have a five-runner affair for the opener, but in reality, this is a match bet.
Here is why the favourite takes it.
The Selection: Bollin Thou (6/5)
Forget the trends for a moment. Yes, 8-year-olds have a poor record in this race (zero winners in the last decade), but context is king. Bollin Thou arrives on a hat-trick, he stays further than this trip (won over 3m2f), and crucially, he carries just 10-13.
In these conditions, receiving 15lb from his main rival is a massive advantage. He is effectively carrying a featherweight compared to the runner-up. Throw in the booking of Harry Cobden—who is operating at a 40% strike rate in the last fortnight—and you have a horse that will just keep finding when others are emptying. He will likely make this a test of stamina from the railway fences home.
The Danger: Precious Metal (9/4)
On paper, he is the class act. He fits the age profile perfectly as a 5-year-old and won well at Lingfield. If this were good-to-soft ground, he’d be the bet.
But there are two massive red flags:
The Weight: Carrying 12-0 dead on heavy ground at Sandown is a back-breaking task for a young horse.
The Yard: The Miss H.C. Knight stable is cold. The stats show 0 wins from the last 10 runners (0% strike rate) in the last 14 days. You simply cannot back a horse conceding over a stone when the yard isn’t firing.
The Best of the Rest
Calme Olympien (8/1): Won nicely at Ffos Las, but that was on Good ground. Asking him to replicate that on his handicap debut in Sandown mud is a bridge too far.
Hot Goddess (9/2): Already held by Precious Metal on collateral form. Hard to see her reversing it here.
The Bottom Line
Precious Metal has the engine, but Bollin Thou has the conditions, the weight, and the jockey. Cobden will likely send him on early, turn the screw, and let that 15lb difference do the damage up the hill.
Win Selection: Bollin Thou