Date: Saturday, 31st January 2026
Race: Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Handicap Chase
Sandown’s railway fences usually sort the men from the boys, but looking at today’s HorseRaceBase (HRB) data, one horse is jumping off the page. If you trust the numbers, the 2.02 isn’t as open as the bookies think.
Here is the no-nonsense assessment.
The Clear Winner: Escapeandevade (#5)
Odds: 4/1
HRB Rating: 208.0
In handicap racing, ratings are everything. Today, Escapeandevade boasts a Total Rating of 208.0. The next best in the field is Jax Junior on 190.5. That is a 17.5-point gap. In a competitive Class 2, being that far clear on the figures is effectively a neon sign.
Add in the human factor: the “Stat Attack” highlights the Harry Cobden / Harry Derham combination is operating at a 40% win strike rate (5 wins from their last 12). He handles the Soft ground, he’s in form (figures of 222212), and statistically, he is the only rightful favourite.
The Course Specialist: Gunsight Ridge (#2)
Odds: 7/1
Do not write off the old boy. He won this exact race last year off a mark of 142. Today, he lines up off 142 again. The handicapper has given him a massive chance to defend his title.
His profile at right-handed tracks is absurd: 9 runs, 9 places (100%). He simply doesn’t run a bad race this way round. The only negative is his age. At 11, he is vulnerable to younger, improving legs, but for an Each-Way bet, he is the safest conveyance in the race.
The Market Error: Martator (#3)
Odds: 16/1
Here is where the market looks wrong. Kotmask (#7) is trading at 6/1, yet Martator is out at 16/1.
Look at the Head-to-Head data: Martator leads Kotmask 8-3 in their meetings. He beat him by 3 lengths at Ascot just 70 days ago. Yes, Kotmask prefers Sandown, but a 10-point price difference between two horses where one consistently beats the other is ridiculous. If you’re looking for a value play to hit the frame, Martator is overpriced.
The Verdict
The data is shouting for one outcome. Escapeandevade is stone superior on the ratings and has the strongest jockey/trainer combo in the paddock.
Win: Escapeandevade
Forecast: Escapeandevade to beat Gunsight Ridge