Race: Ladbrokes Dublin Chase (Grade 1)
Time: Sunday 1st Feb, 2.10pm
Sometimes, you just have to trust what you see rather than what you are told. The betting market for Sunday’s Dublin Chase has priced this race on reputation and potential, completely ignoring recent facts.
We have a standout value bet in Solness at 100/30.
Here is the no-nonsense case for why the bookmakers have the hierarchy upside down.
1. The Form Is In The Book
We do not need to speculate on how the “Big Three” match up. We watched it happen 36 days ago at this exact track and trip.
On that day, Solness beat Marine Nationale (2nd) and Majborough (3rd). He beat them fair and square on merit. Today, they meet on identical weight terms. There is no logical reason why the two beaten horses should be significantly shorter prices than the horse that defeated them.
2. The Course Specialist
Leopardstown is a specialist’s track, and Solness thrives here.
Track Record: 5 runs, 4 wins.
Defending Champ: He won this specific Grade 1 race in 2025.
Consistency: He has never finished out of the money here.
3. The Price Discrepancy
Majborough (7/4): Priced on “potential” as a 6-year-old, despite being beaten 3.3 lengths by the selection last time.
Marine Nationale (2/1): The highest-rated horse, but he hasn’t won a race in over a year.
Solness (100/30): The course specialist, the recent winner, and the defending champion.
The Verdict
When you can back the course-and-distance winner, who is 4-from-5 at the track and the defending champion, at a bigger price than the two horses he just beat, you have to take the value.
Bet: Solness (FR) to win @ 100/30.