Race: Virgin Bet Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
Time: Saturday 14:40
Track: Sandown Park (Soft/Heavy)
Small field Grade 1s are often tactical nightmares, but today’s Scilly Isles presents a logic puzzle that is easier to solve than the market suggests.
We have a field of four. The bookies have priced this as a duel between the Mullins raider Kitzbuhel and Gordon Elliott’s mare Kala Conti.
Here is the no-nonsense breakdown of why the favourite is the only bet.
The “Value” Trap
The first thing the average punter spots is the weights.
Kitzbuhel: Official Rating 153, carries 11-7.
Kala Conti: Official Rating 149, carries 11-0 (mares’ allowance).
On paper, the mare receives 7lbs from the favourite but is only rated 4lbs inferior. Mathematically, she is 3lbs “well-in” and looks the value play at 9/4.
Ignore that maths. It’s a trap.
The Real Numbers (HRB Data)
Official Ratings are often slow to react to an improver. My proprietary HorseRaceBase (HRB) data tells a completely different story about the engine under the bonnet.
Total Rating: Kitzbuhel (286.6) vs Kala Conti (257.7)
Last Run Figure: Kitzbuhel (164.0) vs Kala Conti (151.4)
The data doesn’t lie. Kitzbuhel’s last run figure of 164 is a genuine Grade 1 standard performance. He is currently operating nearly a stone superior to the mare. The 7lb weight concession won’t be enough to stop him; his ceiling is simply much higher.
The Sandown Factor
W.P. Mullins sending a horse to Sandown is significant. Booking Harry Cobden to ride it is the clincher.
Sandown is a specialist track. The Railway Fences down the back straight require rhythm and aggression. You don’t want a jockey learning on the job. Cobden is riding out of his skin (40% strike rate in the last fortnight) and knows exactly where to place a horse at those fences. This booking signals intent: they aren’t here to nurture the horse round; they are here to dictate and destroy.
The Verdict
Don’t overthink the handicap marks in a Grade 1. Kitzbuhel has the superior data, the steep upward curve, and the best jockey for the track. He will have too much power for the mare in the closing stages.
Win: KITZBUHEL (5/6)
Forecast: Kitzbuhel to beat Kala Conti.