Date: Sunday, 1st February 2026
Race: Timeless Sash Windows Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)
Forget the romance of a comeback and ignore the visual impression of a “close finish” last time out. If you strip the emotion out of the 3.20 at Leopardstown and look strictly at the numbers, this race is a closed shop.
The betting suggests a duel. The proprietary data suggests a procession. Here is why Lossiemouth is the banker of the weekend.
1. The Weight Disadvantage is Terminal
This is a Grade 1, not a handicap, yet the race conditions have gifted the mares a massive advantage.
The Mares: Lossiemouth and Brighterdaysahead are officially rated 159. They carry 11-5.
The Geldings: El Fabiolo is rated 156 over hurdles. Anzadam is 157. They carry 11-12.
Do the maths. El Fabiolo is officially rated 3lbs inferior to the mares, yet he has to give them 7lbs. Strictly at the weights, he is 10lbs wrong before the tape even goes up. In a Championship race on Heavy ground, giving a stone turnaround to a mare of Lossiemouth’s calibre is statistically impossible unless she falls.
2. The “Close Finish” Mirage
The casual punter will look at the form book from 34 days ago and see Brighterdaysahead finishing just one length behind Lossiemouth. The narrative is: “It was tight, maybe the Gordon Elliott mare can reverse it on heavy ground.”
The HorseRaceBase (HRB) data exposes this as a mirage.
Despite the small winning margin, the algorithm has awarded Lossiemouth a Total Rating of 349.5 compared to Brighterdaysahead’s 282.7.
A gap of 66 points in a Grade 1 is an abyss. The data tells us Lossiemouth won with her ears pricked, idling in front, while the runner-up was maxed out. Do not bank on a reversal of form; the winner had gears she didn’t even use.
3. The Trap: El Fabiolo
El Fabiolo is 8/1 for a reason. Yes, he was a 175-rated chaser, but his form string (P2F2FF1) confirms his fencing career imploded. He is back over hurdles to rebuild confidence. He is a 9-year-old trying to concede weight to the best mares in training over a trip that is likely too sharp for him now. He is running for a place, at best.
The Bottom Line
Willie Mullins has won this five times in the last decade (State Man, Hurricane Fly). He holds the ace again. The conditions of the race make it nearly impossible for the geldings to win.
The Bet: Lossiemouth to win. She is the class angle, the data angle, and the weights angle.
The Forecast: Lossiemouth to beat Brighterdaysahead. The gap between the mares and the geldings at these weights is too big to bridge.
Verdict: Don’t overcomplicate it. Back the grey.