Saturday 31st January 2026
If you glance at the racecard for the 5.55 at Newcastle, your eyes naturally gravitate to The Green Man. He’s the 5/2 favourite, his form figures read 1154132, and he’s trained by Philip Kirby who knows how to ready one for the Tapeta.
But we aren’t here to back safety; we are here to back value. And the data suggests the favourite is there to be shot at.
The Problem with the Favourite
The Green Man is what I call a “public reliable”. He turns up, he runs his race, and he fills the frame. But look at the Daily Speed Ratings. He is clocking a consistent figure of 67.32. That is reliable, but it is slow. He relies on a tactical race to get his nose in front.
In a handicap like this, you want a horse with an engine, not just a sat-nav.
The Real Engine: Benacre (4/1)
If you want raw ability, look at Benacre. His speed rating tops the chart at 82.8.
That is a massive 15-point gap between him and the favourite.
Class: He’s dropping from Class 3 company previously.
The Clock: He is undeniably the fastest horse in the race on his day.
The Angle: While The Green Man is scraping paint to hold position, Benacre has the gearing to blow the race apart if Oliver Stammers gets the fractions right.
The Dangerous Outsider: Northern Spirit (14/1)
If you are looking for an Each-Way thief to pay for the Saturday takeaway, have a look at Northern Spirit.
The market has dismissed him at 14/1, but the Speed Tool has him rated 78.87—that’s still 11 points clear of the favourite. He has a 46% place strike rate at Newcastle and handles the straight 7f perfectly. He is overpriced.
The Verdict
The market has priced this race on consistency; I’m pricing it on capability.
The Win: Benacre (4/1). The numbers don’t lie; he is simply the fastest horse in the field.
The Saver/EW: Northern Spirit (14/1). Too big a price for a horse with his track stats.
The Swerve: The Green Man (5/2). Let someone else take the short price on a slow reliable.