Date: Saturday, 31st January 2026
Race: Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase
If you want a lesson in how handicapping works, look no further than the 3.42 at Sandown today. We have a six-runner field that boils down to a brutal physics equation: can a high-class tank give nearly two stone to a progressive young chaser in soft ground up the Sandown hill?
Here is the no-nonsense verdict.
The Heavyweight: Mr Vango (9/4)
You have to admire this horse. He is the class act of the field, boasting an Official Rating of 155. The HorseRaceBase system rates him at a massive 250.7, putting him streets ahead of his rivals on raw ability. He is a Course & Distance winner, relishes the mud, and his recent form (13P1112) is rock solid.
The Problem: He is carrying 12st 0lbs.
Dead weight in holding ground is a killer. He has to spot 26lbs to his main market rival. Asking a horse to concede that kind of advantage over 3 miles at Sandown is asking for a miracle, regardless of how classy he is.
The Plot: Fortunate Man (7/4)
This is where the smart money goes. Jonjo O’Neill’s runner arrives carrying a featherweight 10st 2lbs.
Jockey: Harry Cobden is booked—a massive signal of intent.
Profile: He is unexposed, lightly raced, and has a 100% place record on soft ground.
The Angle: He is technically “well in” at the weights. While Mr Vango is slogging through the mud with top weight, Fortunate Man will feel loose. If he jumps fluently, that 26lb swing is virtually insurmountable in the final uphill finish.
The Others
Pic Roc (7/2): The only other viable contender. Ben Pauling’s yard is in form, and this horse is consistent (80% place rate on this going). If the front two cut each other’s throats, he picks up the pieces.
Nassalam (12/1) & Blackjack Magic (14/1): Hard pass. Nassalam has pulled up in 4 of his last 5 starts. Blackjack Magic has a similar profile (FPPP). You don’t bet on horses that don’t finish races.
The Verdict
Logic dictates you simply cannot ignore the weight. Mr Vango is the better horse, but Fortunate Man is the better bet under these specific conditions.
Selection: Fortunate Man (Win)
Forecast: 1st Fortunate Man, 2nd Mr Vango