Date: Saturday 31st Jan 2026
Race: 2.20 Musselburgh – bet365 Scottish Champion Chase
If you strip away the noise and look purely at the numbers, the 2.20 at Musselburgh isn’t nearly as complicated as the betting market suggests. We have a classic handicap puzzle: a class act giving away lumps of weight versus a well-in progressive sort.
Here is the no-nonsense breakdown.
The “Cheat Code”: Insurrection (100/30)
This is where the race is won or lost. Insurrection is officially rated 139. However, with Mr Freddie Keighley’s 7lb claim, his riding weight drops to an effective 10-4.
Let that sink in. We have a 139-rated horse carrying two pounds less than Traprain Law (rated 134). It is a mathematical anomaly that gives him a massive advantage.
He has the course form in the book, having comfortably beaten The Kalooki Kid (defending champ) and Tommys Oscar (course specialist) here just 30 days ago. The Nicholls yard knows exactly what they are doing targeting this pot. He handles the Good to Soft ground (67% place rate), handles the track, and essentially runs off a featherweight. He is the one to beat.
The Danger: Traprain Law (7/1)
If anyone spoils the party, it’s this lad. He is the HorseRaceBase Top Rated animal (227.4), comfortably clear of the field on the data.
He comes here fresh (35 days off), a scenario where his stats are deadly (78% place strike rate). He won nicely at Wetherby last time out and his form figures are rock solid. At 7/1, he is the undeniable value in the race, but he has to give 2lbs to Insurrection despite being rated 5lbs inferior. That is a tough ask, but the price compensates for the risk.
The Swerve: Jpr One (9/2)
The class act of the field, rated 156. There is no doubting his ability, and his 50% strike rate right-handed is impressive. But let’s be realistic: he is conceding 24lbs to a Paul Nicholls horse.
In a competitive Class 2 handicap, giving away nearly two stone to a race-fit, in-form rival like Insurrection is a monumental task. He will likely run a gallant race, but for betting purposes, the weight concession makes him a terrible proposition at the price.
The “Plot”: The Kalooki Kid (100/30)
Do not be fooled by his 5th place finish behind Insurrection last month. He won this exact race in 2025. That run 30 days ago screams “prep run” to put him spot on for his title defence. He will be sharper today, but he still has 3 lengths to find with Insurrection on that form.
The Verdict
The handicapper has left the door wide open for INSURRECTION. The 7lb claim is the deciding factor that tilts the scales firmly in his favour.
Win: Insurrection
Next Best: Traprain Law (The value play)