Date: Saturday 31st January 2026
Race: 3.10 Sandown – Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle
Conditions: Heavy (Proper jumping ground)
Let’s cut the waffle. Sandown on heavy ground isn’t a race; it’s a war of attrition. The 3.10 is a Premier Handicap over nearly three miles with an uphill finish that breaks hearts. You don’t need a flashy speedster here; you need a tank.
I’ve crunched the ratings, the trends, and the weight variances. Here is the no-nonsense verdict.
The Favourite: Henri The Second (7/2)
The Verdict: Solid.
Paul Nicholls targets this race (4 wins historically), and he’s played a blinder with this lad. Henri The Second ran 28 days ago at this track over 2m4f and finished a staying-on second. That run was the perfect pipe-opener. He was crying out for three miles that day, and he gets it today. He handles the mud, he’s race-fit, and he has the class. He is the rightful favourite.
The Trap: Red Dirt Road (11/1)
The Verdict: Swerve.
Yes, he won this exact race last year. Yes, the Jonjo O’Neill yard has won the last two renewals. But look at the “Days” column. 322 days off. He hasn’t been seen since pulling up at Uttoxeter nearly a year ago. Asking a horse to come off a year-long layoff and win a Premier Handicap in Sandown mud carrying nearly top weight (11-12) is asking for a miracle. The bookies are pricing him on his name, not his current reality. Let him run.
The Ratings Pick: Titan Discovery (9/1)
The Verdict: The Smart Play.
If you trust the algorithms, this is your winner. My HorseRaceBase ratings have him on a score of 220.0, well clear of the field. He has an 83% place strike rate and won nicely at Cheltenham last time out. He’s consistent, hardy, and overpriced at 9/1 given his statistical superiority.
The Plot Job: Sole Solution (17/2)
The Verdict: Dangerous.
Venetia Williams in the mud. That’s usually all you need to know. She won this in 2022 and 2023. Sole Solution ran just 9 days ago. When Venetia turns a stayer out that quickly, it means they are thriving. Plus, he carries 10-2. In heavy ground, receiving nearly two stone from the top weights is a massive advantage. He’s the one lurking at the bottom of the card that could spoil the party.
The Final Call
If you want a solid run for your money, Henri The Second is the most likely winner. He has the perfect profile for this.
If you want value, Sole Solution each-way is the clever bet. The low weight and quick turnaround is a classic Venetia Williams angle that profitable punters don’t ignore.
1. Henri The Second
2. Sole Solution
3. Titan Discovery
Avoid: Red Dirt Road.