Race: Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)
The Play: Kazansky (Each Way)
The Price: 11/2
Stop looking at the trainer’s name. Look at the form book.
The opener at the Dublin Racing Festival is being priced on a reputation that doesn’t exist yet. The market has Doctor Steinberg as the 11/8 favourite. This is a textbook “lazy” price, driven by the Mullins/Townend factor rather than cold, hard performance data.
Here is why you should swerve the favourite and back the upset.
1. The Class Gulf
Kazansky (11/2) isn’t just a “contender”; he is the only horse in this field bringing Grade 2 winning form to the table. He posted a HorseRaceBase rating of 150.6 when winning at Limerick.
Compare that to Doctor Steinberg. His last win was a solid, but unspectacular, performance rated at 139.1.
Do the maths. We are getting 11/2 about the horse rated 150, and asked to take 11/8 about the horse rated 139. In a heavy-ground slog, you back the proven engine, not the potential.
2. The Age Trend
The trends for this race have shifted. The 5-year-olds used to dominate, but recently they have been getting bullied. The last four winners were aged 6, 7, 7, and 6.
Positives: Kazansky (6yo) and Doctor Steinberg (6yo).
Negatives: Love Me Tender (5yo) and Santo Sospir (5yo).
This trend suggests the market is right to drift the younger horses, but wrong to ignore the strongest 6-year-old in the race.
3. The “Mullins Tax”
Willie Mullins wins this race for fun (7 of the last 11). We know that. But at 11/8, the price of Doctor Steinberg has fully factored that in—and then some. You are paying a premium for the stable tour, not the horse’s actual achievements.
The Verdict
Santo Sospir (11/2) is being backed on hype after an easy win in a weak race. Love Me Tender (13/2) has the class but is the wrong age and arguably wants better ground.
That leaves Kazansky.
He has the highest recent speed figure. He fits the age profile. He has the course form. And most importantly, he is three times the price of a favourite he is statistically superior to.
Advice: Back Kazansky Each Way at 11/2. If the ground turns it into a bog, he’s the one who will keep finding when the others cry enough.