Date: Sunday, 1st February 2026
Race: 1.55 Musselburgh – bet365 Handicap Chase (Class 3)
If you are looking for a complex betting puzzle to unpick this Sunday afternoon, you won’t find it at Musselburgh. The 1.55 has been stripped of its competitive edge by the morning non-runners, leaving us with a five-runner field that is heavily skewed in one direction.
Sometimes the data whispers; today, for Koukeo, it is shouting.
The Banker: Koukeo (FR)
Odds: 5/4 | Trainer: Jonjo O’Neill
In professional handicapping, we look for a “ratings spike”—a horse whose figures sit significantly above the field average. Today, the HorseRaceBase (HRB) Total Rating for Koukeo is 202.8.
To put that in perspective, the next best horse in the race (Pure Carbon) is rated 146.5.
That is a 56-point gap. In a two-mile handicap chase, a margin of that magnitude is almost unheard of. It suggests Koukeo is effectively running in a different grade to his rivals. He arrives on a hat-trick after a dominant win at Haydock, and his “Last Run” figure (110.7) is nearly double that of his nearest pursuer.
The stats back up the visual impression: the O’Neill horse and jockey combination boasts a 60% Win Strike Rate in this specific context. At 5/4, the price might look short to the casual punter, but the value is undeniable.
The Danger: Pure Carbon
Odds: 9/4 | Trainer: Harry Derham
If there is a fly in the ointment, it is Harry Derham’s runner. The stable is in fine form (21% win rate in the last fortnight), and on raw ability, this horse is the clear “best of the rest”.
However, there is a trust issue. He unseated his rider (UR) at Ludlow last time out. Musselburgh is a sharp, right-handed track where the fences come at you fast. If his confidence is brittle, he will be found out. He is the forecast play, but he is not the win bet.
The Fade: Parisencore (FR)
Odds: 15/2
Do not get sucked in by the “Course Specialist” angle here. Yes, Parisencore is a C&D winner and has a solid record at the track. But he is a 10-year-old conceding weight (11-13) to a rapid improver like Koukeo (11-10). The graph is trending down for the veteran, while the favourite’s is trending vertically up.
The Verdict
Don’t overthink it. The market has been distorted by the withdrawals, but not enough to erase the value. The favourite is statistically miles clear.
The Nap: Koukeo (Win)
The Forecast: Koukeo to beat Pure Carbon