Sunday 1st Feb 2026 | Heavy Ground
The 12.40 at Leopardstown is a Listed Mares Handicap Hurdle that looks wide open on the boards, but the HorseRaceBase data suggests the market has this completely wrong.
We have a top-rated runner with a massive statistical advantage trading at nearly double-digit odds, and a 40/1 shot whose collateral form makes a mockery of the current prices.
Here is the no-nonsense breakdown.
The Class Edge: #4 Siog Geal (17/2)
In handicap racing, you usually look for a few pounds in hand. Today, we have a chasm.
#4 Siog Geal tops our Total Ratings with a score of 220.8. The next best in the field is #5 Cousin Kate on 203.3.
The Data: That is a 17.5-point gap between first and second. It is rare to see a horse this far clear in a competitive Listed handicap.
The Profile: She is a recent Grade 2 winner at Newbury. While she shoulders top weight (11-8), the algorithm rates her effectively “well-in” against this opposition.
The Price: At 17/2, the market is treating the top weight as a negative, but the ratings suggest her class is simply superior. She is the clear value win bet.
The Heavy Ground Specialist: #10 May Call You Back (7/1)
While #5 Cousin Kate is the reliable form horse (beating several of these recently), she is vulnerable on pure stamina.
#10 May Call You Back is the one to be with for the forecast.
The Stat: The combination of W.P. Mullins and Brian Hayes shows a 56% Win Strike Rate in our ‘Stat Attack’ for today’s specific conditions.
The H2H: Crucially, she beat Cousin Kate on Heavy ground at Gowran Park 85 days ago. With the mud flying today, that form line is the one that matters.
The Massive Value: #8 Tir Og (40/1)
This is where the market is insulting the data.
If you look strictly at collateral form, the price for #8 Tir Og is indefensible. At Thurles (94 days ago), Tir Og conceded weight to #2 Carried With Love and beat her by 2.5 lengths.
#2 Carried With Love is currently 11/1.
#8 Tir Og is available at 40/1.
There is no logic to this disparity. Tir Og has a 6-3 winning record in Head-to-Heads against this field. She is the “wrong price” runner of the day and a mandatory Each-Way play.
The Verdict
Win: #4 Siog Geal (17/2) – 17 points clear on ratings. The class act.
Next Best: #10 May Call You Back (7/1) – The heavy ground pick over the favourite.
Longshot: #8 Tir Og (40/1) – Beat the 11/1 shot comfortably on recent form. Huge value.