Sunday 1st Feb 2026
The market for the 2.30 at Musselburgh looks all wrong this morning. The betting suggests a hierarchy that the raw data simply doesn’t support. When the maths and the money disagree this violently, there is usually only one winner in the long run.
Here is the breakdown.
The Lay: The G Wizard (4/1)
The bookies have The G Wizard marked up as the 4/1 favourite. It’s a classic case of pricing up ‘potential’ over proven ability.
The HRB ratings have him on a total score of 165.4. That makes him only the 4th best horse in the race, a massive 24 points behind the top-rated runner. He’s unexposed, yes, but in a competitive handicap, taking short odds on a horse with that much to find on the figures is a quick way to the poorhouse. Swerve him.
The Win: Speiriuil (9/2)
If you want the horse with the strongest immediate claims, it’s Speiriuil.
The Form: She posted the highest ‘Last Run’ rating in the field (100.0) when winning at Kelso 34 days ago.
The Connections: Trainer Adam Nicol and jockey Joshua Thompson are flying, operating at a 27% strike rate in the last fortnight.
The Setup: She handles the right-handed track and the trip perfectly. She is the logical, solid selection.
The Value: Ofaolains Glory (12/1)
This is the glaring anomaly. Ofaolains Glory is the Top Rated horse in the race (189.1) yet trades at double-digit odds.
Course Specialist: She has won her last two starts, both right here at Musselburgh.
The Drift: She’s drifting because she’s switching from Chases back to Hurdles. The market assumes this is just a pipe-opener.
The Verdict: At 12/1, the price compensates for the risk. You are getting the highest-rated animal in the field who clearly thrives at this venue.
The Placepot Banker: Summergrounds (12/1)
If you need a horse to hit the frame, look no further. Summergrounds holds an 86% Place Strike Rate at this track. He is a 10-year-old veteran who runs his race every time. He’s the first name on the team sheet for forecasts and placepots.
The Verdict
Ignore the noise around the unproven favourite.
Win: Speiriuil (9/2)
Each-Way Shouts: Ofaolains Glory (12/1)