The Puzzle: 3m 7½f (Marathon Chase) | Going: Good To Soft
Non-Runner Update: Defending champion Magna Sam was withdrawn at 8:07 am.
The Edinburgh National is a brutal test of stamina. You don’t just need a horse that jumps well; you need one that keeps galloping when the others have cried enough. With the field cut to seven, the market has tightened, but the data screams that this is a two-horse war with one clear value angle.
The Favourite: Rock My Way (15/8)
There is no dispute he is the class act. Joe Tizzard’s yard is firing at a 33% strike rate, and this horse tops the ratings (HRB 196.2) for a reason. He has the back-class to win this.
The Problem: Weight. He has to concede nearly a stone to the field over four miles. Carrying 12st in a marathon is a “stopper.” It demands a monumental effort to give 11lbs or 22lbs away to race-fit rivals over this extreme trip. At 15/8, you are backing a horse to defy physics.
The Trap: Forged Well (9/2)
The market respects him because he is a course winner and unexposed (7yo). That looks dangerous on paper, but dig deeper. His win here was over 3 miles. Today is nearly 4 miles.
He is stepping up a full mile in distance against seasoned stayers. He might cruise for three miles and empty rapidly when the stamina sap kicks in. At 9/2, you are paying for potential, not proof. I’m swerving him.
The Selection: Grozni (5/1)
If you want a bet that makes sense, it’s GROZNI.
The Sweet Spot: He is rated almost identical to the favourite (193.8 vs 196.2) but carries 11lbs less. That weight swing is massive over 3m 7f.
Proven Stamina: unlike the youngsters, we know he stays. He won over 4 miles at Kelso just 56 days ago.
Form Collateral: In that Kelso win, he absolutely destroyed Cadell (distanced) and Bodhisattva (16L). He has the beating of the rest of the field.
The Verdict
Inis Oirr is a shadow of the horse that won this in 2024. Rock My Way faces a mammoth weight carrying task.
The smart money is on GROZNI. He arrives fit, he loves the marathon trip, and the handicap marks have given him a massive advantage over the favourite.
Bet: Grozni (5/1)