Date: Sunday 1st Feb 2026
Race: Pertemps Network Group Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
If you follow the early money in the 3.40 at Musselburgh, you’re backing Florida Dreams. If you follow the data, you’re backing a mistake.
The HorseRaceBase (HRB) figures for this staying hurdle have highlighted a glaring inefficiency in the market. We have a clear “Big Three” on the ratings, but the bookies have them in the completely wrong order.
Here is the no-nonsense breakdown.
The Value Nap: #8 Lihyan (17/2)
The algorithm doesn’t care about reputation; it cares about raw output. Lihyan tops the HRB Total ratings today with a score of 210.6.
The Angle: He is rated clear of the field yet sits fourth in the betting.
The Form: He arrives off a solid 2nd in a Class 2 at Cheltenham.
The Verdict: When the top-rated horse is available at 17/2, you don’t overthink it. He is a massive Each-Way price for a horse the data says should be favourite.
The Danger: #4 Double Powerful (9/2)
If this horse had a clean jumping record, he would likely be 2/1.
The Stats: He posted the highest ‘Last Run’ figure in the field (110.8) when finishing 2nd at Kempton.
The Risk: His form line reads 333UFU2. He has the biggest engine in the race, but you are gambling on his jumping holding up. If he stays on his feet, he is the one to beat.
The Lay: #11 Florida Dreams (100/30)
This is a classic ‘wealth hazard’ favourite. The market loves him because he is consistent (5242233), but the data suggests he is a professional loser.
The Stats: He has a 56% place strike rate but struggles to get his head in front.
The Reality: At 100/30, you are paying a premium for a horse that likely finishes 2nd or 3rd again. He is third-best on our ratings (202.9) but shortest in the betting. Swerve him for the win.
The Trap: #1 Ahoy Senor (33/1)
Don’t get sentimental. Yes, he’s a Grade 1 name, but he is conceding lumps of weight (12-0) to race-fit handicappers. His rating has collapsed to 159.3 (10th best). He is on a retrieval mission, not a winning one.
The Bottom Line
The 3.40 is a battle between the Data Choice and the Form Choice.
Win/EW: #8 Lihyan @ 17/2 (The Algo Top Pick)
Saver/Forecast: #4 Double Powerful @ 9/2 (The Form Pick)
Data provided by HorseRaceBase.