Date: Sunday, 1st February 2026
Race: Spring 2026 Handicap Hurdle (Listed)
Going: Heavy
A 20-runner handicap hurdle on Heavy ground at Leopardstown is usually a lottery. However, the HorseRaceBase (HRB) data has thrown up a statistical anomaly that provides a clear angle into this race.
Here is the no-nonsense breakdown.
The Value: Bowensonfire (9/1)
The algorithm has identified a massive outlier.
HRB Rating: 255.9 (Clear Top Rated)
Nearest Rival: #3 Murcia on 231.6
The Edge: A 24-point gap in a competitive handicap is rare.
Bowensonfire is a course and distance winner, having won here just 36 days ago. The ‘Stat Attack’ data confirms an 88% place strike rate for him on left-handed tracks. With Gordon Elliott training and Jack Kennedy riding, the 9/1 price tag is a significant market error. He is the clear value bet.
The Danger: I Started A Joke (5/2)
The market favourite is priced on physics, not just form. He carries 10st 4lb.
On heavy ground, receiving nearly two stone (28lbs) from the top weights is a decisive advantage. He won comfortably at Punchestown three weeks ago and arrives fresh. He is the most likely winner if the track turns into a bog, but 5/2 is very short in a field of this size.
The Mullins Maze
Willie Mullins saddles 10 runners—half the field. Trying to guess the stable plot is futile, so we simply follow the retained jockey.
Paul Townend rides #3 Murcia (15/2). Despite the heavy weight (11st 4lb), she is the second highest-rated horse in the race. Townend had the pick of the litter; this is significant.
The Verdict
Don’t overthink the chaos. Back the horse with the massive ratings advantage at an each-way price.
Win / Each-Way: #2 Bowensonfire (9/1)
The Saver: #14 I Started A Joke (5/2)