​Date: Tuesday 3rd February 2026

Track: Carlisle (Right-handed, stiff, uphill finish)

Going: Good To Soft

​If you know Carlisle, you know it’s a graveyard for top-weights. That final climb to the line finds out who is fit and who is carrying too much lead.

​Looking at today’s HorseRaceBase (HRB) data for the 3.05 Mares Handicap Chase, the race boils down to simple physics: a race-fit improver carrying 10-10 against a class-dropper lugging 12-0.

​The Selection: Celestial Fashion (5/2)

​HRB Rating: 305.3 (Top Rated)

​This mare is the standout bet of the day. Here is why the data supports her:

• ​The Weight Swing: She is receiving a massive 18lbs from the favourite, Ilovethenightlife. On soft ground at Carlisle, that is a race-winning advantage.
• ​The Form: She arrives here in the form of her life. She bolted up by 18 lengths at Wetherby just 12 days ago. She is fit, confident, and ahead of the handicapper.
• ​Course Form: She is a proven entity here, having won over this course and distance in November.
• ​The Ratings: HRB rates her at 305.3, which is 10 points clear of her nearest rival. Her “Last Run” rating of 96.7 is significantly higher than anything else in the field.

​The Danger: Ilovethenightlife (9/4)

​HRB Rating: 295.0

​There is no doubting her class. She drops from a Listed Class 1 at Newbury down to a Class 4 handicap. On paper, she is the best horse in the race.

​However, she has to give nearly a stone and a half to a younger, fitter rival. Her form figures (54U2203) show she is consistent, but she hasn’t got her head in front recently. Asking her to concede that much weight on this track is a massive ask.

​The Swerve: Lady In The Park (13/2)

​She won nicely at Perth last time out, but that was 285 days ago. First time out after almost a year off, against two race-fit rivals at Carlisle? The percentage call is to take her on.

​The Verdict

​Don’t overcomplicate it. Celestial Fashion is 18lbs well-in compared to the top weight, she loves the track, and she destroyed a field less than two weeks ago.

​Win Bet: Celestial Fashion @ 5/2