Date: Tuesday 3rd February 2026
Race: 26 February Landlords Raceday Handicap Hurdle
Conditions: 2m1f, Heavy Ground
Taunton in February on Heavy ground usually turns into a slog, and the market for the 3.15 has fixated on one thing: the weights.
The 4-year-old Premier is the 9/4 favourite, largely because he carries a featherweight 10-5. The narrative is simple: light weight in heavy mud wins races. But if you look at the raw data, the favourite is under-priced and the class angle has been missed.
Here is the no-nonsense breakdown.
The Data Discrepancy
The HorseRaceBase (HRB) figures for this race reveal a massive gap in quality that the handicap marks haven’t quite caught up with.
Courageous Strike: HRB Total Rating 330.8
Imaginarium: 302.1
Premier: 300.6
There is a 30-point gap between Courageous Strike and the favourite. In handicap terms, that is a chasm. While Premier is receiving weight, Courageous Strike is arriving with a ‘Last Run Rating’ of 84.7—the highest in the field. He is the most consistent, statistically superior animal in the race.
The Paul Nicholls Factor
You do not bet against Paul Nicholls at Taunton without a very good reason. It is his fortress. Courageous Strike (100/30) has form figures of 2211523. He is tough, he handles the conditions, and Harry Cobden rides.
He has to give roughly a stone to the favourite, but the data suggests he is more than a stone superior in ability.
The Mud-Lark Danger
If you are worried about the heavy going, the danger isn’t the favourite; it is the veteran Phoenix Risen (3/1).
Ignore his official weight of 10-11. With Mr Chad Bament’s 7lb claim, he is effectively carrying 10-4—which is less than Premier. He posted the highest speed figure in the field (72.4) and destroyed Teorie by 33 lengths on soft ground recently. If the track is absolutely bottomless, he is the one who will keep galloping when the others stop.
The Verdict
The market is obsessed with Premier’s age allowance, leaving the best horse in the race at a backable price.
Win Selection: COURAGEOUS STRIKE (100/30)
The Saver: Phoenix Risen (3/1)
The Trap: Premier (9/4) – Too short based on the ratings. Let him beat you.