Date: Tuesday, 3rd February 2026
Race: Arthur & Peggy White Memorial Handicap Chase (Class 3)
Conditions: 2m 7f, Heavy Ground
We have a four-runner field at Taunton this afternoon. The ground is heavy, the fences come thick and fast, and usually, in these small-field attrition races, punters overthink the “tactical” angle.
Today, the data makes the decision simple. Ignore the names; look at the numbers.
The Liability: Brave Kingdom (3/1)
Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden are a formidable duo, but you cannot back this horse with confidence right now. His recent form figures read P-3-P-P. He has pulled up in two of his last three starts. Asking a horse out of form to lug top weight (12-0) through heavy mud is a quick way to lose money. The HRB ratings have his recent performance trending downwards. Pass.
The Trap: Bucksy Des Epeires (3/1)
This is the classic “public” bet. Punters see Venetia Williams + Heavy Ground and blindly back it. Don’t fall for it.
The Data: He is the lowest-rated horse in the field on HRB Total figures (221.4).
The Form: He was beaten 26 lengths last time out and pulled up the time before.
The History: In the Head-to-Head records, he has already been hammered by Royal Jewel on heavy ground (beaten by a distance at Newton Abbot).
He is handicapped to win (mark of 120), but he isn’t running well enough to take advantage of it.
The Selection: Royal Jewel (5/2)
This is the only adult in the room.
Top Rated: He tops the HRB Total ratings (317.2).
Consistency: Form figures of 1231263. He turns up, he jumps, and he tries.
Suitability: He handles the mud, stays the trip, and as mentioned, has the beating of Bucksy Des Epeires on collateral form.
The Verdict
In a race full of question marks, stick with the reliable operator. Royal Jewel is the highest-rated horse and the safest conveyance.
Win Bet: Royal Jewel (IRE)