Date: Tuesday 3rd Feb 2026
Track: Wolverhampton (Tapeta)
Class 6 handicaps are often a lottery, but the 5:30 at Wolverhampton offers a rare bit of clarity. We have a classic showdown today: a rapidly improving youngster against a field of exposed veterans, with a massive handicap plot bubbling under the surface.
Here is how I see it unfolding.
The Win: Hows The Guvnor (2)
You don’t overcomplicate it when a horse is this far ahead on the numbers. Hows The Guvnor arrives on a hat-trick after a tidy Course & Distance win just seven days ago.
The metrics don’t lie. His HRB Total Rating is 285.2, putting him streets ahead of his nearest rival (Secret Road at 262.2). In a race of this grade, that gulf in class is usually decisive. He is the only runner on a genuine upward curve, and while he carries a penalty, he likely has pounds in hand. He is the one to beat.
The Value Play: Bomb Squad (5)
If you want to find the value, you have to look at the weights. Ignore Bomb Squad’s recent finishing positions and look at the maths against the top weight, Harbour Vision.
Back in December, Harbour Vision beat Bomb Squad by less than three lengths. Today, thanks to the handicapper, Bomb Squad is 9lbs better off. That is a massive swing for a relatively small margin of defeat. Drawn perfectly in Stall 3 to sit handy, he is exceptionally well treated to reverse that form.
The Danger: Secret Road (4)
Secret Road is the safe anchor. He has drawn the coffin box (Stall 1), which is actually a blessing here—he’ll hug the rail, save every ounce of energy, and run his usual honest race. He might lack the winner’s turn of foot, but he is a near-certainty for the frame.
The Verdict
Harbour Vision is vulnerable under top weight (9-13) against younger legs. The race lies between the improver and the handicap plot.
WIN: Hows The Guvnor
EACH-WAY / FC: Bomb Squad
Advice: Back Hows The Guvnor on the nose, or take the Reverse Forecast with Bomb Squad to cover the weight swing.