Race: Class 4 Handicap, 6f (Standard)
Time: 6:00 PM
We have a field of seven for this sprint, but the data quickly whittles this down to a two-horse war, with one runner holding a distinct class edge.
The Selection: Betsen (9/4)
The HorseRaceBase (HRB) data makes a compelling case for Betsen. He tops the ratings significantly with a Total Score of 327.6, well clear of his nearest rival Dyrholaey (298.3).
The key here is the grade. Two starts ago, Betsen won a Class 2 Handicap at Southwell. Last time out, he ran a respectable 4th in a Class 3 at Newcastle. Today, he drops into a Class 4.
Facing Class 4 opposition when you are in Class 2 winning form is the definition of a “good thing” on paper. He has the draw (Stall 4) to stalk the pace and the engine to finish.
The Danger: Coachello (9/2)
If Betsen is beaten, it will be by the handicapper’s calculator. When these two met 14 days ago at Newcastle, Betsen beat Coachello by 2.2 lengths.
However, there is a massive 6lb weight swing today.
Newcastle: Coachello gave Betsen 7lbs.
Today: Coachello gives Betsen just 1lb.
Strictly on maths, that swing brings them dead level. However, Coachello is an 8-year-old veteran, whereas Betsen is a 5-year-old seemingly entering his prime. I prefer the younger legs over the weight swing.
Best of the Rest
Many A Star (6/1) is the value play for place backers. He finished just a nose behind Coachello over this course and distance last month. He is well-handicapped on old form (OR 84 down from 90+) and won’t be far away if the front two cut each other’s throats.
The Verdict
Don’t overcomplicate it. Betsen is a Class 2 winner running in a Class 4 race. The weight swing gives Coachello a sporting chance, but class usually tells.
Win: Betsen
Forecast: Betsen to beat Coachello