The Race: Class 4 Handicap | 1m 1½f (9.5f) | Tapeta
We have a field of seven for the feature at Dunstall Park, and on paper, it looks like a battle between the thriving favourite and a rival who seems to have his number. But digging into the data reveals why the “bogeyman” angle is a red herring today.
The Selection: Eupator (FR) @ 11/10
Let’s not overcomplicate this. Eupator is the only horse in this race operating at peak efficiency.
The Form: He’s chasing a hat-trick after bolting up by nearly 4 lengths over this exact Course & Distance just eight days ago. He is 6lb higher today, but the manner of that victory suggests he is still comfortably ahead of the handicapper.
The Speed Rating: He tops the speed figures (73.9) and holds the highest HRB total (341.7).
The Draw: Yes, Stall 7 is widest, but in a small field with his early gate speed, Sean Levey should have no trouble crossing over to dictate or sit handy.
The “Trap”: Charlies Choice vs. Eupator
If you look at the Head-to-Head stats, Charlies Choice has beaten Eupator three times in a row (3-0). That looks damning for the favourite—until you check the distances.
Those victories came over 1m 2f and 1m 4f. Charlies Choice is a grinder who stays all day. Today, we drop back to a sharp 9.5 furlongs. This trip plays entirely to Eupator’s tactical speed and completely against Charlies Choice, who will likely find things happening too fast before staying on when the bird has flown.
The Danger: Towerlands (IRE)
The only viable threat. He’s consistent (11124) and arrives in form. However, his pedigree (by Earthlight) screams speed/miler. Stretching out to nearly 1m 2f for the first time is a gamble on his stamina. If Eupator turns the screw early, Towerlands could empty in the final furlong.
The Swerve: Commander Of Life
Avoid. He ran a nice 2nd last time out, but that was over 7f. Jumping straight up to 9.5f is a massive ask on this surface. He is likely to travel well and fold quickly.
Final Verdict
The market has this right. Eupator is a confident selection to defy the weight and the draw. The drop in trip kills off the threat from Charlies Choice.
Win: Eupator
Forecast: Eupator to beat Charlies Choice (The latter will plod through beaten horses for 2nd).