Race: BetMGM Supports Safer Gambling Handicap (Class 5)
Distance: 5f | Surface: Tapeta
Time: 8:00 PM
There is no need to overcomplicate the nightcap at Wolverhampton. The data points in one direction, and quite aggressively so.
The Verdict: GREY HORIZON (1)
It is rare to see a handicap where one runner sits so far clear on the ratings. Grey Horizon tops the HorseRaceBase (HRB) Total Ratings with a massive score of 314.1. The next best is Flash Rascal on 245.9. That is a gulf in class that suggests the handicapper hasn’t caught up with him yet.
The Case for the Favourite:
Form: Arrives on a hat-trick (1-1-1) and is seeking a four-timer.
Course Form: Won over 6f here just 8 days ago. He is race-fit and clearly handles the Tapeta.
The Draw: Drawn in Stall 1. Over 5f at Wolverhampton, the inside rail is prime real estate. If he breaks on terms, he holds the rail and dictates the race.
Speed: Despite dropping back from 6f, his speed rating (64.3) is the highest in the field. He has the pace to cope with the drop in trip.
The Danger: Flash Rascal (3)
If the favourite fluffs the start, Flash Rascal is the one to pick up the pieces. He is consistent (form figures 3-3-3) and arguably the safest option for a Forecast or Placepot. He doesn’t win often, but he runs his race.
The Value Angle: Rotokura Belle (2)
Ignore her last run. Two starts ago she won over 5f at Southwell. She is drawn in Stall 3, which historically produces more winners at this track/trip than even Stall 1. If there is an upset, she is the likely culprit at a decent price.
One to Swerve: Whizzy Dizzy (4)
Drawn 9 of 7 (after non-runners, effectively the widest stall). In a 5f dash at Wolves, you cannot afford to be posted wide on the turn. He will be running further than everyone else.
Final Call
Win: GREY HORIZON
Forecast: Grey Horizon to beat Flash Rascal