Date: Tuesday, 3rd February 2026
Race: 8:30 Wolverhampton (Class 6 Handicap, 3yo)
If you are looking for value in the lucky last at Wolverhampton tonight, look past the favourite. While the market gravitates towards safety, the handicap book reveals a glaring opportunity in the weights.
Here is the breakdown.
The Favourite: Thanh Nam (4/1)
The Safe Play
There is no mystery why Thanh Nam heads the market. He is the only Course & Distance (C&D) winner in the field, having won this exact race 50 days ago. He is consistent, handles the Tapeta surface perfectly, and represents the high-percentage combination of James Owen and Luke Morris.
If you want a horse that will almost certainly run his race, he is your man. However, at 4/1, you are paying for reliability, not value.
The Value Angle: Flying Macs (11/1)
The Smart Play
This is where the race gets interesting. Flying Macs is currently trading at double-figure odds, which is frankly incorrect based on collateral form.
Thirty-two days ago at Chelmsford, Flying Macs beat Thanh Nam by nearly a length. On that day, Flying Macs received just 2lbs from the favourite.
Today, Flying Macs receives a massive 6lbs from Thanh Nam.
The Math: He is effectively 4lbs better off at the weights than when he already beat the favourite.
The Upgrade: The booking of Hollie Doyle is a significant statement of intent from the yard.
The Risk: He is drawn wide in Stall 12. Doyle will need to be sharp to get a position, but the price more than compensates for the draw.
The Dark Horse: Telling Time (15/2)
The Improper
If you prefer unexposed profiles, Telling Time is the one to watch. He makes his handicap debut today off a mark of 57. His pedigree (by Time Test) screams middle-distance, and his staying-on third in Novice company last time suggests this step up to 8.6f is exactly what he needs. He is the wildcard that could spoil the party.
The Verdict
Do not overcomplicate this. We have a horse (Flying Macs) who has beaten the favourite before and is now carrying significantly less weight relative to him.
Win Bet: Thanh Nam (4/1) – The rightful favourite, but short enough.
Value Bet (The Pick): FLYING MACS (11/1) – Each-way. The weight swing is undeniable, and with Hollie Doyle on board, he is the clear value in the race.
Next Step: Keep an eye on the market for Telling Time. If he shortens into 5/1 or 9/2, it suggests the yard fancies him to exploit his opening mark.