Race: 4.04 Carlisle | Handicap Chase | 3m 1f | Good To Soft
Verdict: The form book is screaming one name.
If you believe in mathematics over sentiment, there is only one place to look in the 4.04 at Carlisle today. We have a classic handicap puzzle where the “winner” of the last meeting is there to be shot at.
Here is the cold, hard breakdown of why Shadow Chaser is the bet, and why the favourite is a trap.
The Anchor: Shadow Chaser (4/1)
Nineteen days ago at Newcastle, Uptown Harry beat Shadow Chaser by 8.5 lengths. On paper, that looks comprehensive. But look at the weights that day:
Newcastle: Uptown Harry carried a featherweight 9-11. Shadow Chaser lugged 11-2.
Today: Uptown Harry has been shoved up to 11-1. Shadow Chaser carries 11-7.
That is a massive 13lb weight swing in Shadow Chaser’s favour for an 8.5-length defeat.
Furthermore, Uptown Harry is a 12-year-old veteran now carrying a career-high recent mark. Shadow Chaser is a 7-year-old improver. Up the grueling Carlisle hill, fresh legs and a 13lb advantage turn that Newcastle form on its head. It is a simple handicapping equation.
The Value: Super Citizen (12/1)
If you want a price, look at Super Citizen.
Sixty-five days ago, over this exact course and distance, he destroyed Uptown Harry by 12 lengths.
Then: He gave Uptown Harry 19lbs and hammered him.
Today: He only has to give him 9lbs.
He is 10lbs better off with the favourite than when he beat him easily two months ago. At 12/1, he is the forgotten horse in the market.
The Swerve: Uptown Harry
The algorithm rates him top (283.3) because he won last time out. Ignore it. The “veteran tax” is in full effect here. He has gone from carrying 9-11 to 11-1 in less than three weeks. That anchors old horses. He might run well, but he is terrible value at the prices.
The Verdict
WIN: Shadow Chaser (4/1) – The weight swing makes him the mathematical winner.
EACH-WAY: Super Citizen (12/1) – Massive price for a C&D winner meeting rivals on better terms.