Date: Tuesday, 3rd Feb 2026
Track: Taunton (Right Handed)
Going: Heavy
Race: 2m 3½f Handicap Hurdle (Class 5)
Let’s not overcomplicate this. It’s a Tuesday afternoon at Taunton, the ground is Heavy, and we are looking at a Class 5 handicap. In these conditions, you don’t look for potential; you look for stamina, fitness, and a well-handicapped horse.
The data for the 4.45 is screaming out a clear value play. Here is the breakdown.
The Nap: Our Dylan (9/2)
If you strictly follow the numbers, Our Dylan is a statistical anomaly in this field.
The Ratings Gap: The HorseRaceBase (HRB) ratings have him on a total of 298.2. The next best horse, Dish Of The Day, is way back on 234.6. That is a gap of over 60 points. In a compressed handicap, that is massive.
Class Dropper: He is running off an Official Rating (OR) of 105. The average OR in this race is 93. He is effectively a Class 4 horse dipping his toes into a Class 5 contest to bully lesser opposition.
The Weight Swing: He carries 12-0 on paper, but Mr Rian Corcoran claims a vital 7lb. That brings his racing weight down to 11-7, putting him on incredibly favourable terms against the field.
Conditions: He finished a solid 3rd at Ffos Las on Heavy ground just 26 days ago. He is race-fit and handles the mud.
At 9/2, he is the wrong price. He should be favourite.
The Swerve: Dish Of The Day (100/30)
The market has this one wrong. Dish Of The Day is currently second favourite, but I’d be very careful taking short odds here.
He has been off the track for 330 days. Asking a horse to return from nearly a year on the sidelines and immediately perform on Heavy ground over 2m 3f is a huge ask. The lungs will be burning turning for home. He’s likely to travel well and empty out late. Let someone else take the 100/30.
The Danger: Ourbrowneyedgirl (11/4)
If you want a saver, this is it. She ran just 5 days ago at Wincanton (finished 3rd on Heavy). In a slog like this, hard fitness counts for double. She will be honest and she will stay, but on pure ratings, she lacks the back-class of Our Dylan.
The Verdict
Ignore the Paul Nicholls factor with Its A Breeze (form is too poor to trust) and focus on the data.
Win: Our Dylan @ 9/2
The Forecast: Our Dylan to beat Ourbrowneyedgirl