Date: Tuesday 3rd Feb 2026
Race: 1m6f Handicap (Class 5)
We have a classic handicap puzzle at Dunstall Park tonight: a progressive 4yo taking on a field of exposed veterans. The market has the favourite right, but there is a glaring error in the each-way prices.
Here is the breakdown.
The Favourite: Captain Robert (6/4)
The logic here is undeniable. In a race full of horses that have reached their ceiling, Captain Robert is the only one still climbing. He is a 4-year-old stayer who finally put it all together with a win at Chelmsford last time out.
The Fanshawe yard may be quiet, but this horse is unexposed over staying trips. He travels well, stays all day, and simply has more potential than the rest. He is the most likely winner by some margin.
The Value Play: Billy Bathgate (14/1)
This is where the bookies have slipped up.
Seven days ago, Billy Bathgate finished 2nd over this exact course and distance, beating Prince Quattro (who finished 3rd) by a neck.
Last Week: Billy carried 9-6. Prince carried 9-13.
Tonight: Billy carries 9-1. Prince carries 9-13.
Billy Bathgate is effectively 5lbs better off tonight against a horse he already beat a week ago. Yet, the market has Prince Quattro at 15/2 and Billy Bathgate at 14/1.
That price discrepancy makes no mathematical sense. The 10-year-old veteran loves this track and is weighted to confirm the form comfortably.
The Swerve: Skycutter (3/1)
At 3/1, Skycutter is a poor price. He hasn’t won a race on the Flat or over jumps recently (Form: 4977693) and was well held last time out. He is taking up a huge chunk of the market percentage based on past reputation rather than current ability. Let him drift.
The Selection
WIN: Captain Robert (6/4)
The progressive youngster should have too many gears for this aging field.
EACH-WAY / VALUE: Billy Bathgate (14/1)
The handicap swing against Prince Quattro is massive. He is the clear value play in the race.