Date: Thursday 5th Feb 2026
Race: 2m 2f Handicap Chase
Ground: Soft
We head to Thurles for a competitive handicap chase where the market seems to have missed a few tricks. The data suggests this isn’t just a battle of recent winners; it’s a case of who is best treated at the weights in these testing conditions.
Here is the no-nonsense breakdown.
The Solid Option: West Of Carrig (100/30)
This 9-year-old is arguably in the form of his life. After two solid runner-up efforts, he finally got his head in front at Fairyhouse 21 days ago, winning decisively by 2.5 lengths.
The Edge: He has been hit with a weight rise to 11st 12lb, but the booking of Mr A.J. Browne is a masterstroke. His 7lb claim brings the horse’s racing weight down to a manageable 11st 5lb.
The Data: He clocks in with the 2nd highest Total Rating (276.1) on our figures. On soft ground, that weight relief makes him the one to beat.
The Value Play: River Vale (10/1)
If you trust the long-term data over a single bad run, this is your bet. He finished well down the field at Limerick last time, but the algorithm has flagged him as the Top Rated horse (278.8) in the entire race.
Why back him? Two starts ago, he won at Naas. Like the favourite, he benefits from a 7lb claim (Mr L. Burke-Ott), effectively running off just 11st 3lb. At 10/1, the market has overreacted to one poor run. He is the clear value proposition.
The Dangers
Kilbrin Rocco (7/2): Another last-start winner who boasts a superior Speed Rating (63.9) compared to West Of Carrig (46.6). This is crucial at a sharp track like Thurles. He’s consistent and holds the beating of rivals like Mount Frisco on collateral form.
Blue Hop (5/1): The class act of the field (Rated 110) representing Henry De Bromhead. He has the highest speed figure (71.3), but giving weight away all round on soft ground is a big ask for a horse whose form can be patchy.
The Verdict
The race likely sits between the progressive West Of Carrig and the overpriced River Vale.
WIN: West Of Carrig – The 7lb claim is the deciding factor. He stays, he handles the ground, and he is theoretically well-in at the weights.
EACH-WAY: River Vale – The top-rated horse in the race shouldn’t be 10/1. Worth a saver.