The Race: Class 5 Handicap Chase | 2m 4f | Good to Soft
Field: 8 Runners (Brother Boris is a Non-Runner)
This is a low-grade affair, but the data highlights a clear hierarchy. We have a solid form choice, a dangerous class-dropper from a top yard, and a well-handicapped veteran if you’re chasing a price.
The Selection: ZOEMAN (9/4)
Trainer: T R George
Jockey: Jonathan Burke
Zoeman is the standout form pick. He tops the HorseRaceBase ratings significantly (271.1), sitting 43 points clear of his nearest rival.
His run at Ludlow 21 days ago was the best piece of recent form on offer here. He finished a strong second, putting 11 lengths between himself and today’s rival, Night Jet. He meets Night Jet on similar terms today, so there is no logical reason for that form to reverse.
Crucially, Tom George applies first-time cheekpieces. Given he’s knocking on the door, the headgear should provide the necessary focus to get his head in front. He handles the ground, stays the trip, and looks the safest conveyance.
The Danger: MALFOY MANOR (5/1)
Trainer: Dan Skelton
Jockey: Harry Skelton
You back this horse for the connections, not the form book. Malfoy Manor is 0-8 and carries top weight, but the Skelton team is operating at a 31% strike rate with the jockey in the saddle over the last 30 days.
He drops from Class 4 company into a Class 5 and, like the favourite, gets first-time cheekpieces. If the headgear works and the drop in grade helps, he is the only one with the latent class to trouble Zoeman.
The Value Angle: ZACONY REBEL (20/1)
Trainer: Sarah-Jayne Davies
If you want a swing at a price, this veteran is the one. Ignore his last two poor runs and look at the conditions:
Course Winner: He won over this exact course and distance in December.
Class Drop: That win was in a Class 4; today he runs in a Class 5.
Handicap Mark: He won off OR 92. He runs today off OR 92.
He is effectively dropping a grade to run off his last winning mark. He is risky, but the 20/1 reflects that.
The Verdict
The form book points one way. ZOEMAN has the recent numbers, the beating of key rivals, and the headgear angle to seal the deal.
Win: ZOEMAN
Forecast: ZOEMAN to beat MALFOY MANOR