Date: Thursday, 5th Feb 2026
Race: Don Lockwood Sidney Banks Memorial Novices’ Hurdle (Listed)
Let’s not dance around the edges. On paper, this is a six-runner Listed contest. In reality, it is a match race. The bookmakers know it, the market knows it, and the form book screams it.
We have two 130+ rated animals facing off: Act Of Innocence and Sinnatra. The rest are playing for third.
The narrative is simple, but punters often get distracted by visual flashiness over hard substance. Here is why the favourite is the only logical play.
The Smoking Gun: Newbury, 69 Days Ago
We don’t need to speculate on how these two compare. We have the data. On November 28th at Newbury, they met on Soft ground at level weights.
The result: Act Of Innocence beat Sinnatra by nearly three lengths.
Today, they meet on effectively identical terms (11st 5lb). Unless you believe Sinnatra has improved half a stone more than the winner in just two months, the maths dictates the same outcome.
The “Visual” Trap
Sinnatra is currently 7/4, a price kept artificially short because of his last run at Sandown where he won by 55 lengths.
Do not be seduced by that margin. He beat three trees and a bush in a four-runner event. It looked spectacular, but it proves nothing against a rival of Act Of Innocence’s calibre. Dan Skelton’s runner is talented, but he has already been measured and found wanting against today’s rival.
The Henderson Factor
This is Nicky Henderson’s race. He won it last year with Califet En Vol and in 2020 with Shishkin. He targets this specific contest with his best Ballymore/Turners prospects. Act Of Innocence is the highest-rated horse in the field (OR 134) and represents the yard that farms this prize.
The Verdict
The form is in the book. Act Of Innocence has the beating of Sinnatra, the superior rating, and the course trends in his corner.
Win: Act Of Innocence (11/10)
Forecast: Act Of Innocence to beat Sinnatra.