There is no need to overcomplicate the 3.10 at Kempton today. We have a Class 4 Handicap over 7f on “Standard to Slow” ground, and the data points firmly in one direction: the younger legs have the older guard well and truly covered.
This race is effectively a match between the class of Mythical Composer and the race-fitness of Im Workin On It.
The Selection: Mythical Composer (5/2)
Clive Cox’s 4-year-old is the standout bet. The HorseRaceBase (HRB) figures for this runner are compelling:
Top Rated: His HRB Total of 347.7 is the highest in the field.
Peak Performance: His Last Run rating of 97.0 is nearly 9lb superior to his nearest market rival.
He was a comprehensive Course & Distance winner here 65 days ago, beating today’s rival Follow Your Heart by over two lengths. A 65-day break is ideal to freshen him up, and with Rossa Ryan in the plate, he looks the one to beat.
The Danger: Im Workin On It (7/2)
If the favourite fluffs his lines, this is the one to pick up the pieces. He arrives fit and firing, having won over this Course & Distance just 16 days ago.
The Ace Card: He is drawn in Stall 1. Over the Kempton 7f, the inside berth is gold dust, allowing Lewis Edmunds to rail up without spending petrol.
Weight Advantage: Receiving 8lb from the selection brings him into the equation, but he needs a career-best to overturn the ratings deficit.
The Swerve: The Older Horses
The market has Echalar (9/2) as third favourite, but I’m keen to take him on. Yes, he won at Wolverhampton last month, but his previous visit to Kempton resulted in a dismal 11th-place finish. He looks like a Tapeta specialist.
Similarly, Diamondonthehill and Follow Your Heart are exposed 8-year-olds. They are reliable yardsticks for placepot punters, but they lack the tactical turn of foot to trouble the improving 4-year-olds on this surface.
The Verdict
Don’t overthink the fitness angle. Mythical Composer has the superior engine and the proven course form. Provided he breaks cleanly from Stall 6, his class should tell in the final furlong.
Win: Mythical Composer
Forecast: Mythical Composer to beat Im Workin On It